Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Market Fantasy #37 - Week 11 Free Agents and Consistency Rankings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings for week 10. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

Week 11 isn’t going to be bad with the byes, but still, the Rams and Cowboys all have players who are in starting lineups on a fairly regular basis, some teams more than others.

Week 10 saw a couple of players have outstanding weeks seemingly out of nowhere. Marques Colston had his first 100 yard game of the year, complete with a touchdown (on my bench), Riley Cooper continued to dominate with Nick Foles under center, while Kenny Stills and Jarrett Boykin also got in on the fun. The story of WRs yesterday, though, had to be Tavon Austin. Who topped 100 yards with two touchdowns and threw in a kick return TD for good measure. As good as that game was, I still wouldn’t rush to get Austin except in deep leagues or keeper/dynasty types. Yesterday’s game helped to nearly double his per game average on the season (3.6 before, 6.8 after), and he’s not going to score twice on three targets every game. He still has a chance to be a very good pro, but don’t expect him to win you any championships this year. For the running backs, basically every Saints back had a huge day against the terrible Cowboys defense, Andre Brown had a huge day for the Giants, and Donald Brown yet again outperformed Trent Richardson. While Brown’s performance came through the air and definitely not on the ground, he still had 12.4 fantasy points, the only number that matters. Lastly, I wouldn’t break the bank to go get Mark Ingram. As I noted, all the Saints basically had a field day against Dallas. He’s still the third option in that offense and won’t get to face such generous defenses week in and week out.

Alright, let’s get to the pickups!

QB:
Ryan Tannehill: I’ve talked at length about Tannehill so I’ll keep this short. He isn’t lighting the world on fire, but he’s been very consistent and solid all year. This week, he has a nice matchup with the Chargers in what should be a game with a lot of passing opportunities.

Case Keenum: Keenum is another guy I talked about last week, and he put up another big game. He’s averaging 26 points per game since taking over, he isn’t afraid to actually use his top 10 WR anywhere on the field (I know, crazy), and he has a decent matchup with Oakland. You could do a lot worse for a Romo or Rodgers replacement.

If you’re desperate, I’d take a look at Josh McCown and Scott Tolzien. Both have performed well coming on for injured starters. Both have a ton of weapons, and Tolzien especially has a nice matchup this week.

RB:
Dennis Johnson: Johnson is more of a stash if you have the bench space, as he isn’t currently the starter. With Arian Foster likely headed to IR and Ben Tate dealing with four broken ribs, it’s really not that hard to see a pathway to a starting role for Johnson. With the way the running back field is looking right now, every avenue needs to be considered, even if it’s holding a guy so your opponents can’t get him.

Donald Brown: Another game, another Brown outperformance of Trent Richardson. Neither back got much going on the ground, but Brown recorded 64 receiving yards and a score, good for 12.4 points. That will play as a RB2 or flex anywhere. Again, he’s not a clear starter, but with a nice Tennessee matchup coming up, I see him as no worse than a flex.

Chris Ogbonnaya: Don’t break the bank to get Ogbonnaya, but stash him just in case. His coach has stated a desire to get him more work as McGahee just isn’t getting it done. Ogbonnaya has performed pretty well when called upon this year, so it makes sense to get him more work. Stash him if you have the bench space as the Browns offense has been improved with Jason Campbell under center.

With Mike James going down in Tampa Bay, I'd take a flier on Bobby Rainey if you're hurting at RB. Brian Leonard got the start and most of the carries, but Rainey outperformed him and got the score. Leonard has been a career third down back, but Rainey has been dropped by two teams already this year. Rainey is the better player and the best bet in this backfield I think.

WR:
If someone dropped them, Marques Colston and Golden Tate are the priority adds this week at WR, but here’s some names for depth or a WR3 role.

Kendall Wright: I’ve talked a lot about Wright so far this year, but he keeps getting targets and keeps putting up WR2/WR3 numbers and is averaging 7.1 points per game on the year. If he’s still out there, take a shot on him if you need WR depth.

Rishard Matthews: Matthews had a huge game Monday against the Buccaneers. I wouldn’t lose it to go get him, but he does have opportunity and is coming off a game in which he saw 11 targets. It’s not hard to envision him becoming a solid WR3 or WR2 with upside in PPR. Mike Wallace isn’t doing anything this year and Tannehill has been very steady.

Kenny Stills: Basically everyone on the Saints had a good game Sunday (except for Jimmy Graham), but Stills now has double digit points in 3 of his last 4. He’s probably going to be a boom/bust type guy who is probably dependent on the big play, but he’s developing a good rapport with a top 2 QB, so it could be a whole lot worse. Opportunity should be there, and he should see a lot of man coverage that he can get behind in a hurry.

TE:
Tyler Eifert: Eifert had an opportunity this week with Jermaine Gresham out, and while he only had 55 yards on 5 catches, he still had 10 targets. He is a highly touted draft pick who is getting opportunity. A lot of his value will be tied to Gresham’s injury status, but with Gresham out, the opportunity is certainly there. I expect him to raise his catch rate and be a useful piece while he is starting.

That’s all for now. Thanks for reading!

 QB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Stafford, Matthew  DET
26.5
6.371018
2
Tannehill, Ryan  MIA
17.4
2.993326
3
Wilson, Russell  SEA
21.7
6.439635
4
Ryan, Matt  ATL
22.2
7.709878
5
Luck, Andrew  IND
22.9
7.997052
6
Keenum, Case  HOU
26.3
8.924249
7
Pryor, Terrelle  OAK
17.3
5.613767
8
Rivers, Philip  SD
25
9.521554
9
Ponder, Christian  MIN
16.6
4.290947
10
Brees, Drew  NO
32.4
10.74462
11
Roethlisberger, Ben  PIT
18.8
8.317644
12
Glennon, Mike  TB
16.5
5.827354
13
Flacco, Joe  BAL
17.3
6.82139
14
Manning, Peyton  DEN
37.8
12.77754
15
McCown, Josh  CHI
16.9
6.705885
16
Weeden, Brandon  CLE
11.3
3.781534
17
Smith, Alex  KC
17.3
8.222748
18
Cutler, Jay  CHI
18.9
9.154917
19
Griffin III, Robert  WAS
20.6
9.551511
20
Newton, Cam  CAR
21.4
10.33585
21
Palmer, Carson  ARI
14.4
6.019434
22
Romo, Tony  DAL
23.8
12.74683
23
Henne, Chad  JAC
9.7
5.294794
24
Rodgers, Aaron  GB
24.2
12.93667
25
Manuel, EJ  BUF
14.1
6.049426
26
Dalton, Andy  CIN
21.3
12.15905
27
Fitzpatrick, Ryan  TEN
16.8
8.904493
28
Foles, Nick  PHI
23.3
19.84028
29
Brady, Tom  NE
18.3
11.85481
30
Lewis, Thad  BUF
14.5
8.382654
31
Cassel, Matt  MIN
12.2
8.369389
32
Vick, Michael  PHI
19.4
13.97336
33
Kaepernick, Colin  SF
17.2
12.07836
34
Campbell, Jason  CLE
18.7
13.24613
35
Smith, Geno  NYJ
14.9
9.964158
36
Clemens, Kellen  STL
9.1
8.420028
37
Manning, Eli  NYG
15.2
10.54578


RB:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Morris, Alfred  WAS
13.5
4.068518
2
Charles, Jamaal  KC
17.6
4.724875
3
Bell, Le'Veon  PIT
12.8
4.653583
4
Williams, DeAngelo  CAR
9.2
2.94392
5
Jackson, Fred  BUF
11.7
4.385761
6
Gore, Frank  SF
14.2
6.159626
7
Forte, Matt  CHI
16.4
7.149204
8
McCoy, LeSean  PHI
16.9
7.396459
9
Jones-Drew, Maurice  JAC
8.4
4.277706
10
Woodhead, Danny  SD
9.9
5.00644
11
Lacy, Eddie  GB
13.3
6.935777
12
Richardson, Trent  IND
6.6
3.0786
13
Mathews, Ryan  SD
9.2
5.540446
14
Moreno, Knowshon  DEN
15.5
7.470799
15
Peterson, Adrian  MIN
17.8
8.365139
16
Tate, Ben  HOU
6
2.595913
17
Bush, Reggie  DET
16
7.720427
18
Bolden, Brandon  NE
6.2
3.319577
19
McFadden, Darren  OAK
10.8
6.341216
20
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus  CIN
6.3
3.37
21
Stewart, Jonathan  CAR
5.3
1.2
22
Tolbert, Mike  CAR
7.5
4.827698
23
Bernard, Giovani  CIN
11.2
6.806622
24
Thomas, Pierre  NO
10
6.711148
25
Murray, DeMarco  DAL
12.8
7.581381
26
Mendenhall, Rashard  ARI
6.7
4.338418
27
Brown, Donald  IND
5.6
3.322814
28
Jackson, Steven  ATL
6
3.993194
29
Hillis, Peyton  NYG
7.6
5.753453
30
Lynch, Marshawn  SEA
16.3
9.179564
31
Miller, Lamar  MIA
7.3
5.236435
32
Powell, Bilal  NYJ
7.3
5.432845
33
Spiller, C.J.  BUF
7.7
5.920168
34
Rodgers, Jacquizz  ATL
7.7
6.200319
35
Bell, Joique  DET
8.8
6.591821
36
Thomas, Daniel  MIA
5
3.579455
37
Rice, Ray  BAL
7.4
5.866377
38
Ridley, Stevan  NE
11.6
8.15092
39
Ellington, Andre  ARI
9.3
7.664492
40
Foster, Arian  HOU
11.6
8.42019
41
Johnson, Chris  TEN
11.6
8.932311
42
Pierce, Bernard  BAL
4.8
4.265741
43
Stacy, Zac  STL
11.7
9.313037
44
Ogbonnaya, Chris  CLE
4.8
4.514695
45
Snelling, Jason  ATL
5.9
5.542489
46
Sproles, Darren  NO
8.9
8.262869
47
Starks, James  GB
9.2
8.441366
48
Helu, Roy  WAS
6.5
6.962439
49
Jennings, Rashad  OAK
6.8
8.019944
50
Ivory, Chris  NYJ
6.1
7.463819
51
Ingram, Mark  NO
7.5
10.10965


WR:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes  DEN
12.2
4.704791
2
Wayne, Reggie  IND
9.7
5.115922
3
Marshall, Brandon  CHI
15.6
7.49856
4
Shorts, Cecil  JAC
7.7
4.296637
5
Nelson, Jordy  GB
14.2
7.417863
6
Moore, Denarius  OAK
9.2
5.67186
7
Wright, Kendall  TEN
7.1
2.68098
8
Garcon, Pierre  WAS
12.3
7.261942
9
Smith, Steve  CAR
7
2.937119
10
Gibson, Brandon  MIA
7.2
4.155449
11
Sanders, Emmanuel  PIT
7.5
4.731455
12
Smith, Torrey  BAL
10.6
6.944453
13
Floyd, Michael  ARI
6.5
2.634154
14
Hartline, Brian  MIA
7.6
5.095532
15
Johnson, Steve  BUF
7.9
5.476769
16
Gordon, Josh  CLE
13.3
8.182884
17
Green, A.J.  CIN
16.1
9.532581
18
Fitzgerald, Larry  ARI
9
6.668333
19
Baldwin, Doug  SEA
6.5
3.654641
20
Jackson, DeSean  PHI
14.8
9.448074
21
Brown, Mike  JAC
7.1
4.890562
22
Bryant, Dez  DAL
13
8.512814
23
Thomas, Demaryius  DEN
15.7
10.03007
24
Decker, Eric  DEN
10.7
7.756686
25
Tate, Golden  SEA
8.7
6.856537
26
Allen, Keenan  SD
10.5
7.634829
27
Nicks, Hakeem  NYG
7
4.92081
28
Randle, Rueben  NYG
8.1
6.635687
29
Brown, Marlon  BAL
7.8
6.087064
30
Brown, Antonio  PIT
12.1
9.059611
31
Streater, Rod  OAK
5.5
3.404898
32
Hopkins, DeAndre  HOU
7.4
5.699513
33
Jeffery, Alshon  CHI
13.2
10.05611
34
Johnson, Calvin  DET
20.1
13.39515
35
Colston, Marques  NO
7.5
6.045543
36
Cotchery, Jerricho  PIT
9.4
7.958947
37
Williams, Terrance  DAL
8.5
7.622627
38
Woods, Robert  BUF
5.6
4.397081
39
Ginn, Ted  CAR
5.7
4.718077
40
Johnson, Andre  HOU
14.2
12.77496
41
Bowe, Dwayne  KC
5.4
3.938697
42
Dobson, Aaron  NE
9.1
7.989368
43
Douglas, Harry  ATL
7.8
7.327388
44
Hankerson, Leonard  WAS
6.1
5.127582
45
Thompkins, Kenbrell  NE
7.6
7.211442
46
Royal, Eddie  SD
8.7
8.180434
47
Jackson, Vincent  TB
11.2
10.29683
48
Cruz, Victor  NYG
11.8
10.41332
49
Simpson, Jerome  MIN
6.1
5.474543
50
Edelman, Julian  NE
7
6.020541
51
Wallace, Mike  MIA
7.1
6.130635
52
Amendola, Danny  NE
8.3
7.921263
53
Hilton, T.Y.  IND
12.1
11.39961
54
Kerley, Jeremy  NYJ
5.8
5.21271
55
Cooper, Riley  PHI
10.8
11.96161
56
Jones, James  GB
8.4
8.514432
57
Avery, Donnie  KC
5.2
5.047796
58
Jennings, Greg  MIN
5.9
5.783587
59
Jones, Marvin  CIN
9.5
11.16623
60
LaFell, Brandon  CAR
6.9
6.743689
61
Pettis, Austin  STL
5.4
5.516843
62
Stills, Kenny  NO
7.9
8.588839
63
Boldin, Anquan  SF
8.5
9.820211
64
Washington, Nate  TEN
7.2
7.816969
65
Boykin, Jarrett  GB
5.4
6.47197
66
Austin, Tavon  STL
6.8
10.63712


TE:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Walker, Delanie  TEN
6.1
3.465384
2
Olsen, Greg  CAR
6.9
4.152762
3
Reed, Jordan  WAS
8.9
5.66501
4
Miller, Heath  PIT
4.5
2.560931
5
Clark, Dallas  BAL
5.1
4.033299
6
Graham, Garrett  HOU
5
3.865876
7
Daniels, Owen  HOU
8.6
5.352607
8
Gates, Antonio  SD
8.6
5.991805
9
Cameron, Jordan  CLE
11
7.290786
10
Graham, Jimmy  NO
17.5
8.195645
11
Chandler, Scott  BUF
5.1
4.039505
12
Thomas, Julius  DEN
12.7
8.179529
13
Rudolph, Kyle  MIN
6.2
4.818697
14
Bennett, Martellus  CHI
7.3
5.200024
15
Clay, Charles  MIA
7.4
5.305553
16
Gronkowski, Rob  NE
13.5
8.43577
17
Eifert, Tyler  CIN
4.2
2.842464
18
Winslow, Kellen  NYJ
5.8
4.400781
19
Fleener, Coby  IND
6.1
4.912795
20
Davis, Vernon TE SF
12.4
10.74078
21
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
4.6
4.37899
22
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.3
7.663654
23
Miller, Zach TE SEA
4.5
4.158885
24
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
8.6
8.514882
25
Celek, Brent TE PHI
4.3
4.244241
26
Wright, Timothy TE TB
4.4
4.398516
27
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.2
7.318852
28
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
4.5
7.137619


 DST:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Saints  NO
15
4.988877
2
Seahawks  SEA
18.6
6.696268
3
Patriots  NE
15.3
5.637178
4
Bills  BUF
13.4
5.063596
5
Ravens  BAL
15.9
6.436777
6
49ers  SF
16.6
7.335017
7
Eagles  PHI
11.1
3.96106
8
Texans  HOU
10.7
4.618802
9
Broncos  DEN
14.4
6.093915
10
Raiders  OAK
15
6.765928
11
Chiefs  KC
24.8
9.919428
12
Jets  NYJ
12.1
6.045098
13
Titans  TEN
15.6
8.084431
14
Falcons  ATL
8.9
4.795832
15
Vikings  MIN
11.6
5.871042
16
Browns  CLE
14.4
7.104163
17
Cardinals  ARI
16
8.705043
18
Panthers  CAR
22.2
11.9143
19
Rams  STL
16.8
11.60862
20
Lions  DET
10.2
5.613036
21
Buccaneers  TB
11.7
6.324555
22
Packers  GB
13.3
6.716481
23
Cowboys  DAL
15.5
8.546929
24
Bengals  CIN
16.6
10.05187
25
Dolphins  MIA
14.8
7.996913
26
Jaguars  JAC
8.2
5.286834
27
Chargers  SD
10.1
5.626217
28
Steelers  PIT
10.6
6.378978
29
Bears  CHI
12.4
7.529366
30
Redskins  WAS
13.1
7.837863
31
Colts  IND
13.9
8.464888
32
Giants  NYG
10.7
9.345231


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