Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Market Fantasy #42 - Week 12 Free Agents and Consistency Rankings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings through week 11. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. They’re not meant to be regular season ranks, but more of a predictive tool. The aim is to identify players who score the most points week to week on the most consistent basis. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

Week 12 is the last week of byes, but it is pretty brutal, with a lot of big names off. This week, the Seahawks, Bengals, Bills and Eagles are all off, leaving a lot of starters unavailable to your team in a crucial week.

Week 11 saw a few breakouts and the return of Shane Vereen. I’ll talk about Michael Floyd and Bobby Rainey in more detail below, but one player worth mentioning is Marquise Goodwin. Goodwin had a big game Sunday and now has double digits in three of his last five games. He’s off this week, but with the Bills receiving corps hurting so much, he could be a good stash going forward. Vereen didn’t do much of anything in the running game, but was targeted 11 times in the passing game gaining 68 yards. It was interesting that after Ridley fumbled Blount got the carries, but Vereen is obviously going to be a big part of what New England does going forward.

On to the pickups!

QB:
Scott Tolzien: Tolzien has already been announced the week 12 starter for Green Bay, and he gets a good matchup against a reeling Vikings defense that was just roasted by Russell Wilson. Tolzien has been a decent fill in for Green Bay, and he has a host of weapons at his disposal. Don’t be scared off by the three interceptions against a resurgent Giants defense. Tolzien could be a great fill in during a rough bye week for quarterbacks.

Josh McCown: Like Tolzien, McCown has been great in relief of Jay Cutler when pressed into action. This week, he gets to face a Rams defense that has been very porous against the pass this year. McCown has shown great chemistry with all of his weapons and won’t have to deal with Armageddon style storms. I could easily see him as a top 10 QB this week with the byes.

Case Keenum: Keenum is definitely last on the list of pickups and should only be a desperation play, but he will get the start against a Jacksonville team that was just demolished by Carson Palmer of all people. Matt Schaub is clearly not getting it done, and Keenum has played decently before last week’s inexplicable benching. He could be a good play in a pinch this week.

RB:
Montee Ball: Montee Ball only had 25 yards on eight attempts, but scored two touchdowns this week, giving him double digit points in two of his last three games. He’s going to be a Mike Tolbert type whose value is dependent on touchdowns, but he’s tied to a high powered offense and has shown a nose for the endzone in the past. He could be a decent flex play the way the running back field is shaping up this year.

Joique Bell: Monitor Bell’s injury this week, but he could be a good pickup for this week and the future. After Reggie Bush was benched this week for fumbling, it was Bell who took over until his injury, rushing for over 90 yards and scoring. Reggie Bush should be the starter and best option by far, but Bell has managed to stay relevant, and Jim Schwartz is a terrible coach, so Bell should have value moving forward. In the case of a Bush injury, Bell would be an instant RB1.

Bobby Rainey: Last week, I mentioned Rainey was the back to get in Tampa Bay, and it looks like I was right. I didn’t expect this however. Rainey carried 30 times for 163 yards and two TDs while adding a TD reception. He should be the starting RB for TB moving forward. If your league went crazy for Brian Leonard and Rainey is still out there, he is a must add this week and should be at least a flex for your team going forward.

Chris Ogbonnaya: After talking about getting Ogbonnaya more involved in the offense, the Browns came through Sunday as Ogbonnaya totaled 99 yards on 14 touches. He has clearly outperformed Willis McGahee and should be the back to own in Cleveland moving forward. He probably won’t be much more than a flex most weeks, but the opportunity is there and he has produced in limited duty this year. He should be a great depth add going forward.

WR:
Jerricho Cotchery: Despite being largely the third option in the Steelers’ passing attack, Cotchery has been remarkably valuable. With Emmanuel Sanders dealing with a foot injury, Cotchery could get even more interesting. Already averaging 9.3 points per game, Cotchery should continue to benefit from all the attention given to Antonio Brown. Big Ben is playing with a chip on his shoulder and Cotchery should continue to provide flex value and even move to a WR2 role in the case that Sanders misses time this week.

Michael Floyd: Floyd was the main beneficiary of Carson Palmer’s huge day Sunday with six catches on 11 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. Floyd is clearly the number two option alongside of Larry Fitzgerald, and since week 4 only has one game below six points. If a frustrated owner dropped him needing roster space, he should be your priority receiver pick up this week as he should be productive the rest of the way, even with the Cardinals’ tough passing schedule here on out.

Jarrett Boykin: Since James Jones returned from injury, Boykin has outscored him in two of the three games they’ve played together, and the other one Jones won 1.7 to 1.5. Boykin obviously has a good rapport with Scott Tolzien and is the second option in this offense. With a tasty matchup against Minnesota on the block, Boykin should continue to be a good play.

TE:
Delanie Walker: Now that everyone hopefully owns Donald Brown now, I can switch my focus to begging everyone to pick up Walker. Walker has double digits in three of his last four games, and in both games with Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB. With Fiztpatrick at the helm, Walker has 14 catches and two touchdowns over the last two weeks, so the chemistry is clearly there. He should stay hot against the Raiders this week.

Coby Fleener: For the second week in a row, Fleener saw ten targets, and after posting a dud two weeks ago, he was able to shine last week. Fleener hauled in eight of his ten targets for 107 yards. He has a touch matchup with Arizona this week, but has at least 8 points in three of his last four games. With TY Hilton likely dealing with Patrick Peterson, Fleener should get a lot more volume this week and be the second option in the Colts passing attack. He could very well be a top 10 TE from here on out.


QB         
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
26.8
6.130098
2
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
21.8
6.145522
3
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
17.4
2.846067
4
Luck, Andrew QB IND
22.4
7.70468
5
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
21.8
7.412017
6
Rivers, Philip QB SD
24.2
9.385974
7
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
17.3
5.613767
8
Brees, Drew QB NO
31
10.93062
9
Glennon, Mike QB TB
17.2
5.684422
10
Keenum, Case QB HOU
22.4
10.21723
11
Newton, Cam QB CAR
22.5
10.39514
12
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
21.2
9.265312
13
McCown, Josh QB CHI
16.4
5.897192
14
Smith, Alex QB KC
18.2
8.270212
15
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
18.9
9.154917
16
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
36
13.2567
17
Tolzien, Scott QB GB
13.4
1.7
18
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
16.7
6.789286
19
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
21.2
10.69998
20
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
24.2
12.93667
21
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
14.9
5.621606
22
Romo, Tony QB DAL
23.8
12.74683
23
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
16.9
7.969341
24
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
15.3
6.363512
25
Foles, Nick QB PHI
23.2
18.43892
26
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
16.3
8.165592
27
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
21
11.64059
28
Brady, Tom QB NE
18.1
11.26601
29
Manning, Eli QB NYG
15.3
10.00488
30
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
17.3
11.45906
31
Vick, Michael QB PHI
19.4
13.97336
32
Campbell, Jason QB CLE
16.5
12.0878
33
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
13
11.00752
34
Schaub, Matt QB HOU
15
11.76421

RB
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
13.1
4.062265
2
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
16.6
5.36056
3
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
8.6
3.446796
4
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
12.2
4.524672
5
Brown, Andre RB NYG
15.1
5.8
6
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
11
4.743573
7
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
8.5
4.071855
8
Vereen, Shane RB NE
13
5.85
9
Tate, Ben RB HOU
6.6
3.000067
10
Richardson, Trent RB IND
6.4
2.945233
11
Gore, Frank RB SF
13.3
6.3864
12
Forte, Matt RB CHI
16.6
6.812459
13
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
17.8
7.628773
14
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
6.3
3.213273
15
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.2
5.097107
16
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
14.8
7.447174
17
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
10
5.792064
18
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
13
6.584287
19
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
6.2
3.319577
20
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
4.8
2.785165
21
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
6.1
3.650419
22
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
6.9
4.137125
23
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
10.8
6.341216
24
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
16.6
8.625683
25
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
11
6.533752
26
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
9.8
6.384325
27
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
12.8
7.581381
28
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
17.1
9.046574
29
Bush, Reggie RB DET
14.6
8.27877
30
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
5.7
3.912658
31
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
7
4.902907
32
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
7.6
5.753453
33
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
7
5.08661
34
Brown, Donald RB IND
7.2
5.689562
35
Bell, Joique RB DET
9.5
6.586198
36
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
6.9
5.331313
37
Robinson, Khiry RB NO
4.1
3.809672
38
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
4.6
3.964707
39
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
11.2
7.733206
40
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
7.2
6.047223
41
Rice, Ray RB BAL
9.2
7.565418
42
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
12.5
8.891659
43
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
4
3.704199
44
Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN
4.9
4.186275
45
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
7.1
5.904922
46
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
5.1
4.38567
47
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
4.5
4.146432
48
Stacy, Zac RB STL
11.7
9.313037
49
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
5.9
5.542489
50
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
8.5
7.653894
51
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
4
4.218214
52
Ball, Montee RB DEN
4
4.853407
53
Sproles, Darren RB NO
8.4
8.057678
54
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
7.2
7.667311
55
Starks, James RB GB
7.9
8.441366
56
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
8.7
9.546832
57
Helu, Roy RB WAS
6.3
6.620461
58
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
7.1
9.009255
59
Ingram, Mark RB NO
6.6
9.227654
60
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
5.7
14.6426

WR
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes WR DEN
11.7
4.706549
2
Burleson, Nate WR DET
9
4.205023
3
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
9.7
5.115922
4
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
9
5.44415
5
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
14.3
7.03853
6
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
7.2
2.557342
7
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
10.4
6.60125
8
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
11.8
7.023532
9
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
14.5
7.89605
10
Smith, Steve WR CAR
6.9
2.796712
11
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
7
3.867923
12
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
7.2
4.538586
13
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
7.5
4.845297
14
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
9.3
6.395592
15
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
7.9
5.476769
16
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
14.3
8.125337
17
Decker, Eric WR DEN
10.3
7.436505
18
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
15.6
9.517058
19
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
6.8
4.726547
20
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
13
8.512814
21
Streater, Rod WR OAK
6.4
4.354354
22
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
8.3
6.258466
23
Allen, Keenan WR SD
9.9
7.563306
24
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
14.2
9.207812
25
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
6.1
4.18287
26
Colston, Marques WR NO
7.5
5.702068
27
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
9.5
7.504139
28
Green, A.J. WR CIN
14.7
10.11364
29
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
7.8
6.087064
30
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
6.7
4.99003
31
Tate, Golden WR SEA
8.2
6.770805
32
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
13.9
10.08524
33
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
21.7
13.46378
34
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
6
4.551659
35
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
12.9
9.588582
36
Brown, Mike WR JAC
6.3
4.812282
37
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
8.9
7.567833
38
Woods, Robert WR BUF
5.6
4.397081
39
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
12
9.900525
40
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
14.3
12.11992
41
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
12.9
10.91806
42
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
6.8
5.772036
43
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
8.5
7.622627
44
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
9.2
8.219757
45
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
7.4
6.491191
46
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
8.5
7.711031
47
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
7.4
6.80147
48
Amendola, Danny WR NE
7.7
7.371341
49
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
5.8
5.21271
50
Edelman, Julian WR NE
6.6
5.858404
51
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
6.7
5.892572
52
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
11.3
11.05858
53
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
5.6
5.147475
54
Royal, Eddie WR SD
8
8.015042
55
Jones, James WR GB
8.1
8.027351
56
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
8.8
9.362906
57
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
10.2
11.6199
58
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
5.9
5.783587
59
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
8.5
9.184422
60
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
5.5
5.498873
61
Washington, Nate WR TEN
7
7.422255
62
Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF
6.3
6.364485
63
Pettis, Austin WR STL
5.4
5.516843
64
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
5.7
5.9115
65
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
8.7
10.98212
66
Stills, Kenny WR NO
7.2
8.574344
67
Austin, Tavon WR STL
6.8
10.63712

TE
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
7.3
4.146517
2
Miller, Heath TE PIT
4.8
2.504964
3
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
7
4.247835
4
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
8.6
5.352607
5
Gates, Antonio TE SD
8.8
5.738502
6
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
5
3.864011
7
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
13.1
7.337021
8
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
4.5
2.683207
9
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
7.1
4.991883
10
Clay, Charles TE MIA
8.2
5.521494
11
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
4.9
3.89276
12
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
10.2
7.331091
13
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
5
4.137879
14
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
12.5
7.794357
15
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
16.2
9.148905
16
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
6.2
4.818697
17
Fleener, Coby TE IND
6.9
5.184101
18
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
8.1
5.868518
19
Miller, Zach TE SEA
4.8
3.934145
20
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
4
2.820732
21
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
5.1
4.514156
22
Davis, Vernon TE SF
12
10.17251
23
Housler, Rob TE ARI
4
3.48548
24
Celek, Brent TE PHI
4.3
4.029888
25
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.3
7.663654
26
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
8.6
8.078465
27
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
6.5
5.958747
28
Wright, Timothy TE TB
4.1
4.362607
29
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.2
7.318852
30
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
4.2
6.980449

DST

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Saints DST NO
15.3
4.817676
2
Seahawks DST SEA
18.9
6.459025
3
Patriots DST NE
14.6
5.782733
4
Eagles DST PHI
11.5
4.030873
5
Broncos DST DEN
14.2
5.827521
6
Bills DST BUF
14.7
6.397313
7
49ers DST SF
15.5
7.29726
8
Texans DST HOU
10.6
4.386342
9
Ravens DST BAL
14.9
6.788962
10
Raiders DST OAK
14.5
6.591661
11
Cardinals DST ARI
15.8
8.280097
12
Chiefs DST KC
22.7
11.2876
13
Packers DST GB
13.2
6.384356
14
Browns DST CLE
14.4
6.74092
15
Cowboys DST DAL
15.5
8.546929
16
Bengals DST CIN
18
10.5572
17
Buccaneers DST TB
12.3
6.293648
18
Panthers DST CAR
21.2
11.71153
19
Falcons DST ATL
8.4
4.898979
20
Chargers DST SD
10.5
5.463515
21
Steelers DST PIT
10.7
6.067125
22
Rams DST STL
16.8
11.60862
23
Jaguars DST JAC
8.2
5.015974
24
Dolphins DST MIA
14.5
7.632169
25
Lions DST DET
9.4
5.86856
26
Vikings DST MIN
10.6
6.264184
27
Jets DST NYJ
11.1
6.487681
28
Bears DST CHI
13.2
7.493998
29
Colts DST IND
13.3
8.22253
30
Redskins DST WAS
12.6
7.592101
31
Titans DST TEN
14.2
8.681014
32
Giants DST NYG
11.5
9.211406

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