Saturday, November 23, 2013

Market Fantasy #45 - Week 12 Efficiency Ranks

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

So scroll through and let me know what you think. These ranks are a work in progress and I still haven’t decided if I like using touches or looks (targets instead of receptions plus carries) better. For now, I like touches since I am of the mind that a non-catch on a target isn’t always the receiver’s fault, whereas a catch almost always is caused by the receiver. I’ll keep thinking about it.

Thanks for reading!

RB:
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
232
0.770
2
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
247
0.708
3
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
187
0.789
4
Forte, Matt RB CHI
224
0.718
5
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
218
0.722
6
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
235
0.692
7
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
147
0.822
8
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
191
0.628
9
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
174
0.694
10
Gore, Frank RB SF
187
0.670
11
Bush, Reggie RB DET
181
0.674
12
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
184
0.663
13
Sproles, Darren RB NO
86
0.941
14
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
88
0.906
15
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
188
0.578
16
Bell, Joique RB DET
111
0.856
17
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
119
0.777
18
Brown, Donald RB IND
70
1.023
19
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
140
0.701
20
Helu, Roy RB WAS
63
1.008
21
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
80
0.861
22
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
142
0.688
23
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
158
0.622
24
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
160
0.569
25
Starks, James RB GB
59
0.883
26
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
58
0.890
27
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
116
0.679
28
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
61
0.831
29
Stacy, Zac RB STL
144
0.607
30
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
144
0.592
31
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
181
0.470
32
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
55
0.856
33
Rice, Ray RB BAL
176
0.453
34
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
158
0.521
35
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
55
0.785
36
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
115
0.626
37
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
84
0.670
38
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
51
0.776
39
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
52
0.754
40
Tate, Ben RB HOU
146
0.448
41
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
158
0.437
42
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
121
0.552
43
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
111
0.592
44
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
134
0.492
45
Richardson, Trent RB IND
146
0.441
46
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
144
0.447
47
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
132
0.473
48
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
108
0.542
49
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
80
0.576
50
Ball, Montee RB DEN
73
0.555
51
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
112
0.401
52
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
75
0.485


WR:
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
59
2.920
2
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
60
2.423
3
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
58
2.422
4
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
57
2.296
5
Green, A.J. WR CIN
67
2.060
6
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
64
2.044
7
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
53
2.283
8
Welker, Wes WR DEN
61
1.915
9
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
48
2.110
10
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
72
1.758
11
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
56
2.013
12
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
43
2.379
13
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
46
2.098
14
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
58
1.834
15
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
66
1.680
16
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
79
1.599
17
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
35
2.651
18
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
31
3.323
19
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
35
2.623
20
Decker, Eric WR DEN
54
1.763
21
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
69
1.551
22
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
37
2.349
23
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
46
1.952
24
Tate, Golden WR SEA
44
1.975
25
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
32
2.444
26
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
29
2.759
27
Royal, Eddie WR SD
31
2.584
28
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
42
1.993
29
Stills, Kenny WR NO
21
3.295
30
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
47
1.723
31
Allen, Keenan WR SD
41
1.934
32
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
51
1.635
33
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
37
2.078
34
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
25
2.536
35
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
35
2.091
36
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
59
1.220
37
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
26
2.304
38
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
39
1.815
39
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
28
2.161
40
Washington, Nate WR TEN
31
2.068
41
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
48
1.498
42
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
50
1.378
43
Edelman, Julian WR NE
54
1.169
44
Jones, James WR GB
27
2.093
45
Smith, Steve WR CAR
46
1.504
46
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
38
1.700
47
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
43
1.521
48
Colston, Marques WR NO
39
1.664
49
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
42
1.574
50
Streater, Rod WR OAK
37
1.741
51
Wayne, Reggie WR IND
39
1.610
52
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
46
1.335
53
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
30
1.850
54
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
37
1.638
55
Pettis, Austin WR STL
28
1.918
56
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
42
1.476
57
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
29
1.769
58
Austin, Tavon WR STL
39
1.500
59
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
34
1.559



TE:

Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
60
2.410
2
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
45
2.644
3
Davis, Vernon TE SF
34
3.038
4
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
56
1.766
5
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
40
1.830
6
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
39
1.803
7
Clay, Charles TE MIA
47
1.679
8
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
42
1.688
9
Witten, Jason TE DAL
47
1.643
10
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
33
1.891
11
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
54
1.496
12
Fleener, Coby TE IND
37
1.673
13
Cook, Jared TE STL
33
1.782
14
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
27
1.819
15
Gates, Antonio TE SD
56
1.471
16
Finley, Jermichael TE GB
25
1.920
17
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
46
1.515
18
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
24
1.929
19
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
10
4.200
20
Miller, Zach TE SEA
22
1.945
21
Celek, Brent TE PHI
19
2.474
22
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
18
2.517
23
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
30
1.643
24
Daniels, Owen TE HOU
24
1.800
25
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
37
1.481
26
Wright, Timothy TE TB
26
1.581
27
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
35
1.280
28
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
31
1.410
29
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
34
1.094
30
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
23
1.609
31
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
18
1.700
32
Miller, Heath TE PIT
33
1.155
33
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
26
1.373
34
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
21
1.590
35
Kendricks, Lance TE STL
23
1.530
36
McGrath, Sean TE KC
20
1.530
37
Housler, Rob TE ARI
24
1.342
38
Carlson, John TE MIN
23
1.165

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