Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
This week starts the playoffs for most leagues, or is the last gasp to get in the playoffs for leagues that have only a two week postseason. It’s been a crazy year in both real and fake football, but it all comes down to the next couple weeks for your fantasy team. I’m sure you’ve heard and are absolutely sick of the same tired clichés, so I’ll keep this simple, short and sweet. Below is my take on some players who could outperform their past play, and some widely started guys I would think twice about. Best of luck to everyone this week and beyond! I have some interesting analysis of the regular season and what it means for the playoffs coming in the next couple days, so stay tuned! Without further adieu, here is the week 14 Go For It/ Punt!
Go For It!
QB:
Alex Smith – I’ve talked about him on and off throughout the year, but Alex Smith has been very productive, sporting a 16/6 TD/Int ratio and 360 rushing yards. This week, he has a very nice matchup with one of the league’s easiest passing defenses. Smith spreads the ball around to really trust any of his receivers, but all that matters with the QB is that someone catches it. If you’re stuck with a Luck or Kaepernick or still need a Rodgers replacement, give him a look.
RGIII – This might come back to bite me as RGIII hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year. He has a great matchup this week against the once mighty Kansas City defense. The last two weeks, they have been absolutely torched by Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. With the Washington defense good to give up 30 points a game, this should be a high scoring game with plenty of statistical goodness for RGIII.
RB:
Giovani Bernard – This year, Giovani Bernard is producing .787 points per touch, which is fourth among RBs with at least 100 touches. You’re still going to have to deal with BenJarvus Green-Ellis stealing touches, but in a great matchup with Indy, Bernard is the play here. He only needs 13-15 touches to make a real difference, and that should be an easily attainable workload this week as he is averaging 13.5 touches per game. RB2 with RB1 upside this week.
Steven Jackson – Once left for dead, Jackson looks as healthy as he’s been all year and has strung together back to back nice performances. This week he gets to take on a Packers’ defense that has allowed the seventh most rushing yards to opponents. Jackson is still a big part of what the Falcons want to do offensively and is the clear cut goal line back. A line of something like 80 yards and a score isn’t out of the question at all.
Bobby Rainey – After his big breakout, Rainey has been just ok the last couple of weeks. He has a chance to be a solid flex with RB2 upside this week, however, against a Bills team that is surrendering 121 yards per game on the ground and was torched by the Falcons RBs for 151 yards last week. The entire Tampa offense was grounded last week against a tough Carolina offense, but I expect them to get back on track against the Bills this week.
WR:
Michael Floyd – Since his week 11 coming out party, Floyd has been stayed hot posting double digits in three straight. He’s playing well right now, his QB is playing well right now and he has a decent matchup. I’d keep rolling with him.
Julian Edelman – Some of the sheen has come off of the Joe Haden luster lately, and other than him, the Browns don’t really have that great of a secondary. Edelman has been the Pats’ receiver to own the last two weeks and I expect that to continue this week. With Rob Gronkowski likely to garner most of the defensive attention, Danny Amendola, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson doing nothing the last couple weeks, Edelman could be in line for another good game.
Harry Douglas – The resurrection of Roddy White has gotten all of the attention as far as the Falcon’s passing game is concerned, but Harry Douglas hasn’t been forgotten. Since week 7, he’s only had one game of under 8 points. Green Bay is a plus matchup for opponent’s passing games, and if White can perform again, that will take more attention away from Douglas. He’s a solid WR2 play this week.
TE:
Jared Cook – The Arizona Cardinals routinely get roasted by opposing TE. Last week, Zach Ertz went nuts on them for crying out loud. In week 1 when Cook went off for 149 and a score and caused me to leave him in my lineups for five weeks too long, he was facing the Arizona Cardinals. I don’t like typing this as much as you don’t like to read it, but I think we can trust Cook this week, especially if you’re a Julius Thomas or Jordan Reed owner.
Brandon Myers – I thought Myers would be a good sleeper in the offseason, and a mere 13 weeks later, he might finally be proving me right. Myers has been in double digits the last two weeks after a disappointing start and has a pretty good matchup against the Chargers. I am betting on him making it three in a row.
Punt!
QB:
Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick has largely been a bust all year, and even with Michael Crabtree back, I can’t trust him in the playoffs against the defense that just shut down Drew Brees. For those who were starting to think otherwise, Seattle is still really good at defense and Brees > Kaepernick. Look elsewhere.
Andrew Luck – Speaking of QBs who have been a mess most of the year, let’s take a look at Andrew Luck. Though currently 10th in QB scoring on the year, that is largely thanks to his four rushing TDs. Take away those points, and he drops to Ryan Tannehill levels. The Bengals are a tough defense who get after the quarterback and generate a lot of picks. With the offensive mess in Indy right now, I can’t recommend Luck at all.
RB:
Rashad Jennings – Since taking over the lead role in Oakland, Jennings has been pretty great. The type of waiver wire find who wins you leagues. Unfortunately, this week finds him matched up against the toughest run defense in all of football. The Jets are giving up a measly 77 rushing yards per game despite being involved in games where they get destroyed, which would lead to their opponents running a lot. Jennings still has a shot at double digit points, but he’s going to need to score, which is no guarantee.
Ray Rice – If you’re a Rice owner, at this point you hopefully have a contingent plan. Yes, he has a good matchup with the Vikings, but this is still a guy with 3 double digit point totals all year. If he doesn’t score, he’s not going to do much for you. It’s crazy, but we might already be at the end of Ray Rice as a great fantasy play. You simply can’t trust him this year, especially in the playoffs.
Zac Stacy – Zac Stacy has been on a nice run since week 7 posting double digit fantasy points in all but one game, and that was last week after returning from a concussion. You’re playing Stacy if you have him, but I want to temper expectations against a tough Arizona defense. I see Stacy as a low end RB2/flex instead of his usual borderline RB1.
WR:
TY Hilton – Ever since his two game outburst following the Reggie Wayne injury, Hilton has failed to give owners over 5 points in his last three games. He has done nothing in tough matchups with Tennessee and has a tough matchup this week. The Colts offense is a mess and I wouldn’t use Hilton unless I had to.
Wes Welker – Welker has been all but forgotten in the Denver offense lately. Now a lot of this has to do with the concussion, but we still have to consider that. In his last four games, he has one game over FOUR fantasy points (7.2) and his lucky early year TD run is over. I really can’t see using him in a tough Tennessee matchup.
Marques Colston – Since Colston’s week 10 “breakout,” his scoring has gone: 8, 4, 2.7. That’s a bad trend, and while his point total is unlikely to keep halving each week, it’s tough to start him in a tough matchup with Carolina. If you’re still chasing the Colston breakout, the playoffs are the time to stop that.
TE:
Jordan Cameron – Gordon has a terrible QB situation right now, and is only averaging 2.7 points his last four games. Josh Gordon is the clear focus of this offense and I can’t trust Cameron at all right now.
Zach Ertz – Later this week, I’ll post a piece examining what players have done after an out of nowhere breakout game. Spoiler alert – don’t chase that production. Ertz has two games over 5 points all year and despite a nice passing matchup with Detroit, there’s no way I’m getting cute and starting Ertz in the playoffs. No way.
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