Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Now that the regular season is over, I want to revisit something I did for the pre-season, and that is take a look at players who are boom and bust guys. You can find the idea behind the full boom/bust column here. The idea here is to try and identify players who are more or less risky than others. All players come with the inherent risk of completely laying an egg. Be it weather, opposing defenses or simply a bad day, anyone is capable of giving you a completely useless performance. A lot of times, average points per game is quoted as a benchmark of how a player performs. While that’s a very useful number, the problem with it is that it can be over inflated by one or two huge games, or it can be pulled down by a couple duds. What I am hoping to illustrate here is the number of times a player exceeds or fails to reach their per game average.
The charts below are pretty straightforward. Average points per game is listed followed by the number of games a player has scored more than that and the number of games they have scored less than that. Everyone has played at most 12 games this year. The more times a player has exceeded their average point total, the more likely that their average is pulled down by a couple dud games. The more times a player fails to reach their average, the higher the likelihood that their average is artificially inflated by one or two huge games surrounded by duds. Remember, a player who scores 10 points for 4 weeks will have an average of 10 points. A player who scores 25 points one week and 5 points the other three weeks will also have an average of 10 points. Who would you rather have? Sure, you can chase the 25 point effort again, but you’re going to have to stomach a lot of duds.
Take a look at where your guys sit in the charts below and their average points per game. Use that as a benchmark to look for players who generally outperform that score. Those are the guys who are going to put up the most quality weeks for you.
Thanks for reading and best of luck in the playoffs!
Player
|
Avg
|
Games Above Avg.
|
Games Below Avg.
| ||||
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
|
26.6
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Smith, Alex QB KC
|
19.6
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
|
18.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
|
23.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
|
21
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Luck, Andrew QB IND
|
20.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Rivers, Philip QB SD
|
24.4
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Glennon, Mike QB TB
|
16.2
|
6
|
3
| ||||
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
|
20
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Henne, Chad QB JAC
|
10.7
|
6
|
5
| ||||
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
|
13.5
|
6
|
3
| ||||
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
|
18.4
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
|
16.5
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Newton, Cam QB CAR
|
23.2
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
|
16
|
5
|
3
| ||||
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
|
35.2
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
|
18.9
|
5
|
3
| ||||
Romo, Tony QB DAL
|
22.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
|
18.1
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Manning, Eli QB NYG
|
15.4
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
|
11
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
|
17.3
|
4
|
4
| ||||
Brees, Drew QB NO
|
28.6
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
|
21.4
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
|
24.2
|
4
|
4
| ||||
Foles, Nick QB PHI
|
23.9
|
4
|
4
| ||||
Brady, Tom QB NE
|
20.1
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Clemens, Kellen QB STL
|
11
|
4
|
2
| ||||
McCown, Josh QB CHI
|
20
|
3
|
3
| ||||
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
|
18.9
|
3
|
4
| ||||
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
|
13.8
|
3
|
4
| ||||
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
|
20.3
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Keenum, Case QB HOU
|
18.3
|
2
|
4
| ||||
McGloin, Matt QB OAK
|
13.1
|
2
|
2
| ||||
Campbell, Jason QB CLE
|
13.8
|
2
|
3
| ||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Games Above Avg.
|
Games Below Avg.
| ||||
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
|
10.1
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
|
12.3
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
|
17.9
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Forte, Matt RB CHI
|
16.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
|
10
|
6
|
6
| ||||
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
|
17.3
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
|
6.9
|
6
|
5
| ||||
Gore, Frank RB SF
|
12.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
|
9.6
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
|
18
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
|
6.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
|
16.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
|
9.6
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
|
8.2
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
|
11.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
|
7.6
|
5
|
5
| ||||
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
|
13.2
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
|
10.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Bush, Reggie RB DET
|
15.1
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
|
6.9
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
|
16.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Bell, Joique RB DET
|
9.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
12.4
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Brown, Donald RB IND
|
7
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
|
4.6
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Stacy, Zac RB STL
|
11.7
|
5
|
4
| ||||
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
|
12.7
|
4
|
5
| ||||
Richardson, Trent RB IND
|
5.7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
|
6.5
|
4
|
5
| ||||
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
|
9.6
|
4
|
4
| ||||
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
|
4.7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
|
10.1
|
4
|
6
| ||||
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
6.5
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Tate, Ben RB HOU
|
8.3
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
|
8.7
|
4
|
7
| ||||
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
|
6.9
|
4
|
7
| ||||
Brown, Andre RB NYG
|
16.7
|
3
|
1
| ||||
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
|
8.8
|
3
|
5
| ||||
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
|
14.3
|
3
|
7
| ||||
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
9.4
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
|
6.8
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Rice, Ray RB BAL
|
8.4
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
|
8.3
|
3
|
7
| ||||
Ball, Montee RB DEN
|
4.9
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Helu, Roy RB WAS
|
5.9
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
8
|
3
|
7
| ||||
Starks, James RB GB
|
6.6
|
3
|
5
| ||||
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
|
5.6
|
3
|
4
| ||||
Vereen, Shane RB NE
|
12.2
|
2
|
2
| ||||
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
|
7
|
2
|
2
| ||||
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
|
4.6
|
2
|
7
| ||||
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
|
7.2
|
2
|
5
| ||||
Ingram, Mark RB NO
|
5.5
|
1
|
6
| ||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Games Above Avg.
|
Game Below Avg.
| ||||
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
|
7.5
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
|
10.3
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
10.3
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
|
7.4
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
|
14.2
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
6.4
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
|
13.3
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
|
7.6
|
6
|
5
| ||||
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
13.4
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
|
6
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Durham, Kris WR DET
|
4.8
|
6
|
5
| ||||
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
|
7.6
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Allen, Keenan WR SD
|
10.5
|
5
|
5
| ||||
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
|
12.5
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Streater, Rod WR OAK
|
6.5
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
12.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Green, A.J. WR CIN
|
14.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
|
19.6
|
5
|
5
| ||||
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
|
8.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
6.8
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
|
14.8
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
|
8.5
|
5
|
5
| ||||
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
|
7.2
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Royal, Eddie WR SD
|
8.1
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
|
6.3
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
|
6.4
|
5
|
5
| ||||
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
|
5.8
|
5
|
2
| ||||
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
|
7.2
|
5
|
6
| ||||
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
|
9
|
4
|
5
| ||||
Smith, Steve WR CAR
|
6.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
|
10.6
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
|
15
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
|
7.5
|
4
|
5
| ||||
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
9.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
|
20.8
|
4
|
7
| ||||
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
|
13.3
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
6.5
|
4
|
6
| ||||
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
|
9
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Tate, Golden WR SEA
|
7.9
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
|
10.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Edelman, Julian WR NE
|
8.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
|
11.9
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
|
9.9
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
12.5
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Woods, Robert WR BUF
|
5.4
|
4
|
6
| ||||
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
|
10.1
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Avery, Donnie WR KC
|
5.5
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
|
8.1
|
4
|
7
| ||||
Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF
|
5.5
|
4
|
2
| ||||
Stills, Kenny WR NO
|
6.2
|
4
|
6
| ||||
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
|
8.2
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
|
10.6
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
|
8.7
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Jones, James WR GB
|
8
|
3
|
5
| ||||
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
|
5.7
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
|
6.3
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Washington, Nate WR TEN
|
6.9
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
|
5.6
|
3
|
7
| ||||
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
|
6.7
|
3
|
7
| ||||
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
|
9.7
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
|
7.6
|
3
|
6
| ||||
Austin, Tavon WR STL
|
7.3
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Burleson, Nate WR DET
|
8.1
|
2
|
2
| ||||
Brown, Mike WR JAC
|
5.5
|
2
|
5
| ||||
Jones, Jacoby WR BAL
|
5.9
|
2
|
6
| ||||
Amendola, Danny WR NE
|
6.7
|
2
|
6
| ||||
White, Roddy WR ATL
|
4.7
|
2
|
7
| ||||
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
|
6.7
|
2
|
5
| ||||
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
|
6.2
|
2
|
4
| ||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Games Above Avg.
|
Games Below Avg.
| ||||
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
|
7.6
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Fleener, Coby TE IND
|
7.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
|
15.9
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Miller, Heath TE PIT
|
5.1
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
|
6.3
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Clay, Charles TE MIA
|
7.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Celek, Brent TE PHI
|
4.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
|
9.1
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
|
4.1
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
|
4.4
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
|
8.4
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Green, Ladarius TE SD
|
3.9
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
4.9
|
3
|
8
| ||||
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
|
7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
7.7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Witten, Jason TE DAL
|
8.7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
|
4.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Miller, Zach TE SEA
|
5.7
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
12.1
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Wright, Timothy TE TB
|
4.2
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
|
6
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
|
4.3
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
|
4.1
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
|
4.5
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
|
4.6
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
|
6.2
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
|
8.1
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
|
12.5
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
|
14.8
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Cook, Jared TE STL
|
6.7
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
|
4.4
|
3
|
9
| ||||
Player
|
Avg
|
Games Above Avg.
|
Games Below Avg.
| ||||
Packers DST GB
|
13.7
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Browns DST CLE
|
12.7
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Jets DST NYJ
|
10.9
|
7
|
5
| ||||
Seahawks DST SEA
|
19.2
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Saints DST NO
|
14.5
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Eagles DST PHI
|
12.1
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Patriots DST NE
|
13.5
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Chiefs DST KC
|
19.9
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Buccaneers DST TB
|
12.6
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Falcons DST ATL
|
7.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Titans DST TEN
|
13.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Bears DST CHI
|
12.5
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Colts DST IND
|
12.8
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Giants DST NYG
|
11.9
|
6
|
6
| ||||
Bills DST BUF
|
14.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
49ers DST SF
|
16.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Ravens DST BAL
|
14.9
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Raiders DST OAK
|
13.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Cardinals DST ARI
|
15.9
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Broncos DST DEN
|
13.5
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Texans DST HOU
|
10.4
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Panthers DST CAR
|
21
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Bengals DST CIN
|
17.9
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Jaguars DST JAC
|
9.7
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Vikings DST MIN
|
10.5
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Cowboys DST DAL
|
14.6
|
5
|
7
| ||||
Chargers DST SD
|
10.2
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Dolphins DST MIA
|
15.8
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Rams DST STL
|
16.3
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Steelers DST PIT
|
12
|
4
|
6
| ||||
Lions DST DET
|
12.1
|
4
|
8
| ||||
Redskins DST WAS
|
12.2
|
3
|
9
| ||||
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