Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!
Below are my efficiency rankings through week 15. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.
The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).
The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.
One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).
So scroll through and let me know what you think. These ranks are a work in progress and I still haven’t decided if I like using touches or looks (targets instead of receptions plus carries) better. For now, I like touches since I am of the mind that a non-catch on a target isn’t always the receiver’s fault, whereas a catch almost always is caused by the receiver. I’ll keep thinking about it.
Thanks for reading!
RB:
RAnk
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
|
311
|
0.925
| ||||
2
|
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
|
314
|
0.736
| ||||
3
|
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
|
293
|
0.736
| ||||
4
|
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
|
277
|
0.773
| ||||
5
|
Forte, Matt RB CHI
|
324
|
0.686
| ||||
6
|
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
|
296
|
0.672
| ||||
7
|
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
|
223
|
0.786
| ||||
8
|
Bush, Reggie RB DET
|
244
|
0.698
| ||||
9
|
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
|
268
|
0.630
| ||||
10
|
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
|
279
|
0.618
| ||||
11
|
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
|
193
|
0.792
| ||||
12
|
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
|
216
|
0.709
| ||||
13
|
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
|
159
|
0.847
| ||||
14
|
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
|
128
|
0.898
| ||||
15
|
Gore, Frank RB SF
|
257
|
0.612
| ||||
16
|
Bell, Joique RB DET
|
177
|
0.761
| ||||
17
|
Stacy, Zac RB STL
|
223
|
0.622
| ||||
18
|
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
|
180
|
0.720
| ||||
19
|
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
|
243
|
0.610
| ||||
20
|
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
|
257
|
0.588
| ||||
21
|
Brown, Donald RB IND
|
102
|
0.888
| ||||
22
|
Sproles, Darren RB NO
|
115
|
0.848
| ||||
23
|
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
|
73
|
1.030
| ||||
24
|
Helu, Roy RB WAS
|
85
|
0.852
| ||||
25
|
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
|
241
|
0.578
| ||||
26
|
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
|
115
|
0.800
| ||||
27
|
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
|
207
|
0.601
| ||||
28
|
Starks, James RB GB
|
76
|
0.864
| ||||
29
|
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
|
161
|
0.650
| ||||
30
|
Vereen, Shane RB NE
|
83
|
0.843
| ||||
31
|
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
|
242
|
0.520
| ||||
32
|
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
|
202
|
0.575
| ||||
33
|
Rice, Ray RB BAL
|
246
|
0.434
| ||||
34
|
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
|
202
|
0.563
| ||||
35
|
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
|
153
|
0.621
| ||||
36
|
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
|
112
|
0.732
| ||||
37
|
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
|
132
|
0.633
| ||||
38
|
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
|
62
|
0.800
| ||||
39
|
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
|
73
|
0.796
| ||||
40
|
Tate, Ben RB HOU
|
215
|
0.517
| ||||
41
|
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
|
93
|
0.689
| ||||
42
|
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
|
200
|
0.499
| ||||
43
|
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
|
187
|
0.522
| ||||
44
|
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
|
143
|
0.608
| ||||
45
|
Ball, Montee RB DEN
|
123
|
0.616
| ||||
46
|
Richardson, Trent RB IND
|
194
|
0.484
| ||||
47
|
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
|
159
|
0.563
| ||||
48
|
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
|
182
|
0.491
| ||||
49
|
Todman, Jordan RB JAC
|
80
|
0.658
| ||||
50
|
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
|
179
|
0.490
| ||||
51
|
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
|
115
|
0.596
| ||||
52
|
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
|
116
|
0.578
| ||||
53
|
Brown, Andre RB NYG
|
128
|
0.539
| ||||
54
|
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
|
150
|
0.371
| ||||
55
|
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
|
146
|
0.340
| ||||
WR:
Rank
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
|
81
|
2.653
| ||||
2
|
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
|
78
|
2.658
| ||||
3
|
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
|
78
|
2.377
| ||||
4
|
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
|
76
|
2.375
| ||||
5
|
Green, A.J. WR CIN
|
87
|
2.009
| ||||
6
|
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
|
82
|
2.076
| ||||
7
|
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
|
90
|
1.983
| ||||
8
|
Decker, Eric WR DEN
|
73
|
2.178
| ||||
9
|
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
|
96
|
1.865
| ||||
10
|
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
|
72
|
2.204
| ||||
11
|
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
|
70
|
2.159
| ||||
12
|
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
|
102
|
1.756
| ||||
13
|
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
|
75
|
1.881
| ||||
14
|
Allen, Keenan WR SD
|
63
|
2.113
| ||||
15
|
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
|
59
|
2.156
| ||||
16
|
Welker, Wes WR DEN
|
73
|
1.860
| ||||
17
|
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
|
46
|
2.533
| ||||
18
|
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
|
99
|
1.611
| ||||
19
|
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
|
43
|
2.565
| ||||
20
|
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
|
41
|
2.880
| ||||
21
|
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
|
58
|
1.998
| ||||
22
|
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
|
71
|
1.772
| ||||
23
|
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
|
51
|
2.110
| ||||
24
|
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
|
98
|
1.413
| ||||
25
|
Hunter, Justin WR TEN
|
18
|
3.300
| ||||
26
|
Edelman, Julian WR NE
|
91
|
1.412
| ||||
27
|
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
|
37
|
2.462
| ||||
28
|
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
|
73
|
1.668
| ||||
29
|
Royal, Eddie WR SD
|
41
|
2.310
| ||||
30
|
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
|
39
|
2.346
| ||||
31
|
Stills, Kenny WR NO
|
31
|
2.545
| ||||
32
|
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
|
68
|
1.738
| ||||
33
|
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
|
85
|
1.326
| ||||
34
|
Colston, Marques WR NO
|
64
|
1.739
| ||||
35
|
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
|
72
|
1.618
| ||||
36
|
Streater, Rod WR OAK
|
56
|
1.827
| ||||
37
|
Tate, Golden WR SEA
|
56
|
1.793
| ||||
38
|
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
|
67
|
1.701
| ||||
39
|
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
|
32
|
2.206
| ||||
40
|
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
|
42
|
2.088
| ||||
41
|
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
|
50
|
1.858
| ||||
42
|
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
|
52
|
1.783
| ||||
43
|
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
|
73
|
1.429
| ||||
44
|
Jones, James WR GB
|
44
|
1.936
| ||||
45
|
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
|
35
|
2.131
| ||||
46
|
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
|
64
|
1.613
| ||||
47
|
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
|
47
|
1.828
| ||||
48
|
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
|
59
|
1.649
| ||||
49
|
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
|
35
|
2.091
| ||||
50
|
Washington, Nate WR TEN
|
50
|
1.766
| ||||
51
|
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
|
66
|
1.450
| ||||
52
|
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
|
41
|
1.954
| ||||
53
|
Smith, Steve WR CAR
|
63
|
1.494
| ||||
54
|
Austin, Tavon WR STL
|
49
|
1.733
| ||||
55
|
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
|
42
|
1.760
| ||||
56
|
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
|
53
|
1.447
| ||||
57
|
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
|
44
|
1.702
| ||||
58
|
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
|
50
|
1.588
| ||||
59
|
Amendola, Danny WR NE
|
52
|
1.346
| ||||
60
|
Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
|
47
|
1.532
| ||||
TE:
Rank
|
Player
|
Touches
|
Pts/Touch
| ||||
1
|
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
|
76
|
2.514
| ||||
2
|
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
|
54
|
2.470
| ||||
3
|
Davis, Vernon TE SF
|
49
|
3.071
| ||||
4
|
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
|
75
|
1.691
| ||||
5
|
Witten, Jason TE DAL
|
59
|
2.005
| ||||
6
|
Clay, Charles TE MIA
|
67
|
1.670
| ||||
7
|
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
|
71
|
1.634
| ||||
8
|
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
|
63
|
1.649
| ||||
9
|
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
|
39
|
2.133
| ||||
10
|
Cook, Jared TE STL
|
44
|
1.895
| ||||
11
|
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
|
49
|
1.684
| ||||
12
|
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
|
12
|
4.700
| ||||
13
|
Gates, Antonio TE SD
|
70
|
1.341
| ||||
14
|
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
|
59
|
1.592
| ||||
15
|
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
|
53
|
1.636
| ||||
16
|
Fleener, Coby TE IND
|
49
|
1.663
| ||||
17
|
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
|
23
|
2.513
| ||||
18
|
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
|
41
|
1.707
| ||||
19
|
Celek, Brent TE PHI
|
26
|
2.358
| ||||
20
|
Miller, Zach TE SEA
|
29
|
2.052
| ||||
21
|
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
|
32
|
1.997
| ||||
22
|
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
|
34
|
1.709
| ||||
23
|
Wright, Timothy TE TB
|
45
|
1.613
| ||||
24
|
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
|
46
|
1.515
| ||||
25
|
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
|
48
|
1.394
| ||||
26
|
Miller, Heath TE PIT
|
53
|
1.130
| ||||
27
|
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
|
31
|
1.687
| ||||
28
|
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
|
43
|
1.284
| ||||
29
|
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
|
38
|
1.471
| ||||
30
|
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
|
41
|
1.259
| ||||
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