Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Market Fantasy #50 - Week 13 Efficiency Ratings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings through week 13. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).


So scroll through and let me know what you think. These ranks are a work in progress and I still haven’t decided if I like using touches or looks (targets instead of receptions plus carries) better. For now, I like touches since I am of the mind that a non-catch on a target isn’t always the receiver’s fault, whereas a catch almost always is caused by the receiver. I’ll keep thinking about it.

Thanks for reading!

RB:
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
274
0.760
2
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
244
0.785
3
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
251
0.735
4
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
288
0.685
5
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
271
0.687
6
Forte, Matt RB CHI
272
0.682
7
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
181
0.765
8
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
189
0.744
9
Bush, Reggie RB DET
225
0.685
10
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
162
0.787
11
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
138
0.833
12
Bell, Joique RB DET
140
0.824
13
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
212
0.653
14
Gore, Frank RB SF
218
0.631
15
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
101
0.859
16
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
238
0.606
17
Sproles, Darren RB NO
96
0.888
18
Brown, Donald RB IND
89
0.943
19
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
97
0.831
20
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
231
0.581
21
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
154
0.697
22
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
181
0.626
23
Helu, Roy RB WAS
79
0.896
24
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
192
0.597
25
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
144
0.678
26
Stacy, Zac RB STL
177
0.623
27
Starks, James RB GB
65
0.854
28
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
195
0.578
29
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
45
1.024
30
Young, Darrel RB WAS
12
2.858
31
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
226
0.502
32
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
73
0.796
33
Gerhart, Toby RB MIN
34
1.006
34
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
58
0.850
35
Tate, Ben RB HOU
180
0.535
36
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
76
0.739
37
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
60
0.785
38
Rice, Ray RB BAL
211
0.424
39
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
95
0.655
40
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
125
0.625
41
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
161
0.534
42
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
163
0.515
43
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
170
0.512
44
Vereen, Shane RB NE
63
0.725
45
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
179
0.461
46
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
118
0.599
47
Cunningham, Benny RB STL
45
0.744
48
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
89
0.644
49
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
158
0.506
50
Brown, Andre RB NYG
94
0.626
51
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
158
0.496
52
Richardson, Trent RB IND
160
0.431
53
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
130
0.533
54
Ball, Montee RB DEN
97
0.580
55
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
116
0.578
56
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
63
0.652
57
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
94
0.594
58
Hillman, Ronnie RB DEN
52
0.656
59
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
135
0.384
60
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
131
0.354
61
Ingram, Mark RB NO
61
0.579
62
Richardson, Daryl RB STL
83
0.405
63
Leonard, Brian RB TB
59
0.480


WR:
Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
72
2.776
2
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
67
2.539
3
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
67
2.479
4
Green, A.J. WR CIN
72
2.115
5
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
78
1.962
6
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
61
2.362
7
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
69
2.054
8
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
63
2.192
9
Decker, Eric WR DEN
63
2.176
10
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
84
1.814
11
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
62
2.037
12
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
57
2.116
13
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
54
2.207
14
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
82
1.735
15
Welker, Wes WR DEN
68
1.819
16
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
91
1.611
17
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
37
2.659
18
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
37
2.541
19
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
54
2.037
20
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
58
1.891
21
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
41
2.210
22
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
34
3.171
23
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
66
1.744
24
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
61
1.839
25
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
37
2.349
26
Royal, Eddie WR SD
35
2.537
27
Tate, Golden WR SEA
48
1.904
28
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
35
2.526
29
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
36
2.208
30
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
86
1.348
31
Stills, Kenny WR NO
24
2.988
32
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
44
1.909
33
Allen, Keenan WR SD
58
1.729
34
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
71
1.352
35
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
31
2.313
36
Edelman, Julian WR NE
72
1.336
37
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
66
1.494
38
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
62
1.587
39
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
32
2.206
40
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
58
1.626
41
Washington, Nate WR TEN
41
1.871
42
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
35
2.091
43
Jones, James WR GB
37
1.957
44
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
64
1.381
45
Streater, Rod WR OAK
45
1.720
46
Austin, Tavon WR STL
47
1.668
47
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
41
1.783
48
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
55
1.580
49
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
45
1.718
50
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
30
2.060
51
Smith, Steve WR CAR
54
1.504
52
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
43
1.621
53
Avery, Donnie WR KC
36
1.750
54
Colston, Marques WR NO
47
1.523
55
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
34
1.862
56
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
47
1.481
57
Pettis, Austin WR STL
29
1.890
58
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
30
1.850
59
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
39
1.595
60
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
44
1.486
61
Durham, Kris WR DET
35
1.631
62
Woods, Robert WR BUF
30
1.747


TE:

Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
68
2.512
2
Davis, Vernon TE SF
42
3.060
3
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
45
2.644
4
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
50
1.822
5
Witten, Jason TE DAL
54
1.819
6
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
63
1.689
7
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
48
1.760
8
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
37
2.162
9
Fleener, Coby TE IND
44
1.782
10
Cook, Jared TE STL
40
1.943
11
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
62
1.537
12
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
45
1.676
13
Clay, Charles TE MIA
59
1.519
14
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
41
1.688
15
Gates, Antonio TE SD
64
1.353
16
Miller, Zach TE SEA
27
2.126
17
Celek, Brent TE PHI
23
2.430
18
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
46
1.515
19
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
34
1.697
20
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
11
4.455
21
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
26
2.008
22
Green, Ladarius TE SD
16
2.963
23
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
20
2.340
24
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
31
1.687
25
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
41
1.441
26
Watson, Benjamin TE NO
13
2.162
27
Miller, Heath TE PIT
46
1.104
28
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
30
1.643
29
Wright, Timothy TE TB
36
1.397
30
Harbor, Clay TE JAC
19
1.732
31
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
38
1.237
32
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
26
1.577
33
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
32
1.394
34
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
35
1.280
35
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
23
1.591
36
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
22
1.641
37
Kendricks, Lance TE STL
23
1.530
38
Housler, Rob TE ARI
31
1.271
39
Carlson, John TE MIN
30
1.217
40
McGrath, Sean TE KC
21
1.510

No comments:

Post a Comment