Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Market Fantasy #48 - Week 14 Consistency Rankings and Free Agent Pick Ups

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings through week 13. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. They’re not meant to be regular season ranks, but more of a predictive tool. The aim is to identify players who score the most points week to week on the most consistent basis. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

Week 13 is in the books, and with that, so are many or your fantasy regular seasons. Unless your season went very well (resulting in a bye) or very poorly (resulting in waiting for next year/baseball), this week is the start of the fantasy playoffs. It doesn’t matter how you got in, the only thing that matters now is that you’re in and playing for whatever your league plays for. Best of luck to everyone out there!

As far as week 13 was concerned, it will go down as the week of the WR. Two players had over 200 yards, with Josh Gordon becoming the first player to record back to back 200 yard receiving games and Alshon Jeffery breaking his own team record set earlier in the year for most yards in a single game. Not to be outdone, Eric Decker made up for a disappointing year TD wise by catching four TDs this in week 13. Heck, even Roddy White went for 143 yards. If you hung on to him and are still playing for something, this could finally be your payoff as White has a nice schedule coming up. Unfortunately, none of these guys, except MAYBE White are on the waiver wire to grab. Don’t worry, though, there are definitely some good options out there to pick up for the playoffs and beyond. Remember, the playoffs aren’t the time to get cute, and the waiver wire now becomes strategy. Look for guys who could best help as bench depth in case of injury or look at the playoff field’s rosters and pick up guys who could most help your opponents.

On to the pickups!

QB:
Joe Flacco – Joe Flacco isn’t good, or exciting or worth anywhere near the money he got in the offseason. If you’ve been streaming QBs, however, Flacco does matchup with the Vikings this week, and the Vikings can’t stop the pass at all. It’s not a ringing endorsement, but if you’re desperate, I could see a couple big plays from Flacco this week.

Alex Smith – Smith has played a lot better than Flacco all year, and this week he gets to take on a Washington defense that is bad against the pass. Smith doesn’t really wow you, but at the end of the day, his numbers are usually there and he is running a good bit this year as well. Give him a look for QB depth and if your guy has a brutal matchup or has been inconsistent

RB:
Joique Bell – Despite being the backup to Reggie Bush, Bell has actually put up double digits in five of his 12 games this year. Bush has had a fumbling problem as of late, and two weeks ago, it got him benched for Bell. Bell is generally a factor at the goal line as well. He could be a decent flex this week against a soft Eagles defense, but is definitely worth an add as he should retain at minimum flex value and would be a top 15 guy if Bush were to get hurt.

Mike Tolbert – The Carolina RB situation is kind of a mess right now with DeAngelo Williams banged up and Jonathon Stewart looking slow. Tolbert has always been the goal line guy, but he could see an even bigger role if his teammates miss more time or are continued to be hampered by injury. He will continue to be an up and down play, but the opportunity could certainly be there for him to take on a larger role during the fantasy playoffs.

LeGarette Blount – I don’t recommend relying on a Pats RB not named Vereen in the playoffs, but if you must, it’s looking like Blount is your man. With Stevan Ridley a healthy scratch due to fumble-it is, it was Blount who had the most carries for the Pats last week. He also scored as well. If you’re in a league where the running back pool is depleted, Blount may be worth a look as he looks to be involved in the offense going forward.

WR:
Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson is nothing more than a depth play or a dynasty/keeper speculative pickup, but he has shown that he can make electric plays in all facets of the game. Last week against the Bears, he took an end around to the house, outrunning the whole defense (which admittedly isn’t hard to do against the Bears). He is too inconsistent to start on a weekly basis, but he does have at least 8 points in three of his last six and could be an intriguing pick up to stash if you have the bench space.

Doug Baldwin – Baldwin is more of a WR3/depth guy, but you have to take note of his production of late. Baldwin has produced double digits in three of his last four games, and the low game was still 7.6 points. Being tied to arguably the hottest QB in the game doesn’t hurt either. He’s got a tough schedule ahead, but with the Percy Harvin debut on hiatus, he could still get his fair share of looks and be productive.

Julian Edelman – Edelman is a lot like Doug Baldwin in that he’s a little inconsistent, but is tied to a hot QB and has produced as of late. Those two things are really hard to ignore. With Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola basically MIA since week nine and Kenbrell Thompkins not living up to the pre-draft hype, SOMEONE has to catch the ball besides Gronk. That someone more often than not has been Edelman, who has given us back to back weeks of double digit fantasy points.

TE:
Anthony Fasano – Fasano was pretty much a non-factor until week 11. In that span, he has put up at least 8 points in three straight games, and now, gets to face the Redskins who routinely get torched in the passing game. If you’re hurting at TE, Fasano could be a sneaky good play this week and is a good bet to keep on rolling.

Ladarius Green – I talked Green up last week, and he delivered again. Green now has at least 8 points in three straight and double digits in his last two. The rookie is really coming on, leaving Antonio Gates as an afterthought. I would pick up Green in any league if I had the bench space right now.

That’s all for now! Thanks for reading and good luck in the playoffs!

QB:
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
26.6
5.765
2
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
18.8
4.196
3
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
23.1
7.415
4
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
21
7.215
5
McCown, Josh QB CHI
20
7.148
6
Luck, Andrew QB IND
20.8
7.956
7
Rivers, Philip QB SD
24.4
9.718
8
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
17.3
5.614
9
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
16.5
6.217
10
Newton, Cam QB CAR
23.2
9.799
11
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
16
6.215
12
Brees, Drew QB NO
28.6
11.67
13
Smith, Alex QB KC
19.6
8.25
14
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
21.4
9.788
15
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
18.9
8.205
16
Glennon, Mike QB TB
16.2
6.889
17
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
35.2
13.77
18
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
20
9.555
19
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
13.8
6.721
20
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
18.9
9.155
21
Henne, Chad QB JAC
10.7
5.101
22
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
13.5
6.503
23
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
24.2
12.94
24
Romo, Tony QB DAL
22.7
11.93
25
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
18.1
8.518
26
Foles, Nick QB PHI
23.9
17.28
27
Brady, Tom QB NE
20.1
11.29
28
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
20.3
11.39
29
Clemens, Kellen QB STL
11
7.377
30
Keenum, Case QB HOU
18.3
10.56
31
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
18.4
10.98
32
Manning, Eli QB NYG
15.4
9.211
33
McGloin, Matt QB OAK
13.1
8.42
34
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
11
11
35
Campbell, Jason QB CLE
13.8
12.09

RB:
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Brown, Andre RB NYG
16.7
4.416
2
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
12.3
4.309
3
Vereen, Shane RB NE
12.2
4.505
4
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
12.7
4.728
5
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
17.9
6.242
6
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
8.2
3.469
7
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
11.7
5.154
8
Forte, Matt RB CHI
16.1
6.528
9
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
10
5.13
10
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
10.1
5.34
11
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
7.6
4.225
12
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
17.3
7.509
13
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
6.9
3.667
14
Gore, Frank RB SF
12.1
6.512
15
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
13.2
7.457
16
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.6
5.676
17
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
10.6
6.372
18
Richardson, Trent RB IND
5.7
3.112
19
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
6.5
3.927
20
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
18
8.558
21
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
8.8
5.972
22
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
14.3
8.204
23
Bush, Reggie RB DET
15.1
8.244
24
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
6.8
4.664
25
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
6.9
4.71
26
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
7
5.096
27
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
9.4
6.295
28
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
9.6
6.706
29
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
16.6
8.978
30
Bell, Joique RB DET
9.6
6.977
31
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
4.7
4.104
32
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
6.8
4.875
33
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
12.4
8.281
34
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
16.1
9.213
35
Brown, Donald RB IND
7
5.814
36
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
4.6
4.271
37
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
10.1
8.152
38
Rice, Ray RB BAL
8.4
7.084
39
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
4.6
4.431
40
Stacy, Zac RB STL
11.7
8.493
41
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
6.5
5.742
42
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
8.3
7.308
43
Tate, Ben RB HOU
8.3
7.506
44
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
8.7
7.575
45
Ball, Montee RB DEN
4.9
5.362
46
Helu, Roy RB WAS
5.9
6.128
47
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
6.9
7.017
48
Sproles, Darren RB NO
8
7.791
49
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
9.6
8.996
50
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
7.2
8.342
51
Starks, James RB GB
6.6
8.004
52
Ingram, Mark RB NO
5.5
7.998
53
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
5.6
12.72

WR:
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes WR DEN
10.3
5.281
2
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
8.2
4.071
3
Burleson, Nate WR DET
8.1
4.179
4
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
9
5.444
5
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
10.6
6.247
6
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
7.5
4.142
7
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
7.6
4.312
8
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
10.3
6.332
9
Smith, Steve WR CAR
6.8
2.602
10
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
10.6
6.974
11
Allen, Keenan WR SD
10.5
6.886
12
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
7.4
4.798
13
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
8.7
5.911
14
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
12.5
7.613
15
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
14.2
7.961
16
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
15
8.831
17
Streater, Rod WR OAK
6.5
3.988
18
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
12.6
7.866
19
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
6.4
4.071
20
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
7.5
5.435
21
Green, A.J. WR CIN
14.7
9.684
22
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
13.3
9.292
23
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
9.8
7.254
24
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
20.8
12.363
25
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
13.3
9.481
26
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
6.5
4.654
27
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
7.6
6.056
28
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
19.6
13.025
29
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
8.6
6.981
30
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
9
7.529
31
Colston, Marques WR NO
6.8
5.413
32
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
14.8
12.605
33
Tate, Golden WR SEA
7.9
6.562
34
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
13.4
11.457
35
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
8.5
7.219
36
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
10.8
9.598
37
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
6
4.594
38
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
7.2
6.041
39
Edelman, Julian WR NE
8.8
7.667
40
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
11.9
10.224
41
Durham, Kris WR DET
4.8
2.298
42
Jones, James WR GB
8
7.099
43
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
9.9
9.224
44
Royal, Eddie WR SD
8.1
7.645
45
Decker, Eric WR DEN
12.5
12.562
46
Woods, Robert WR BUF
5.4
4.203
47
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
5.7
5.053
48
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
6.3
5.534
49
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
10.1
10.440
50
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
6.3
5.803
51
Washington, Nate WR TEN
6.9
6.782
52
Hankerson, Leonard WR WAS
5.6
5.147
53
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
6.7
6.430
54
Brown, Mike WR JAC
5.5
4.870
55
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
6.4
6.162
56
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
9.7
11.231
57
Avery, Donnie WR KC
5.5
5.391
58
Jones, Jacoby WR BAL
5.9
5.696
59
Amendola, Danny WR NE
6.7
6.696
60
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
7.6
7.711
61
White, Roddy WR ATL
4.7
4.803
62
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
5.8
5.540
63
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
7.2
7.695
64
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
8.1
10.745
65
Goodwin, Marquise WR BUF
5.5
6.364
66
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
6.7
7.832
67
Austin, Tavon WR STL
7.3
10.131
68
Stills, Kenny WR NO
6.2
8.287
69
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
6.2
8.812

TE:
Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
7.6
3.838
2
Miller, Heath TE PIT
5.1
2.991
3
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
4.9
3.704
4
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
6.3
4.304
5
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
4.5
3.526
6
Fleener, Coby TE IND
7.1
4.941
7
Clay, Charles TE MIA
7.7
5.263
8
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
4.6
4.040
9
Celek, Brent TE PHI
4.7
4.104
10
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
6.2
4.891
11
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
7
5.063
12
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
9.1
7.113
13
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
4.1
2.964
14
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
4.4
3.902
15
Gates, Antonio TE SD
7.7
5.810
16
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
8.1
6.170
17
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
12.5
8.505
18
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
14.8
8.827
19
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.7
7.356
20
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
15.9
9.514
21
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
4.8
4.414
22
Miller, Zach TE SEA
5.7
4.928
23
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
8.4
7.489
24
Davis, Vernon TE SF
12.1
9.452
25
Wright, Timothy TE TB
4.2
4.200
26
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
6
5.654
27
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
4.3
4.394
28
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.7
7.041
29
Green, Ladarius TE SD
3.9
4.446
30
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
4.4
5.138
31
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
4.1
6.023

DST:

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Seahawks DST SEA
19.2
6.287
2
Saints DST NO
14.5
5.881
3
Bills DST BUF
14.7
6.128
4
Packers DST GB
13.7
5.921
5
Eagles DST PHI
12.1
4.252
6
Patriots DST NE
13.5
6.048
7
49ers DST SF
16.7
7.782
8
Ravens DST BAL
14.9
7.654
9
Raiders DST OAK
13.6
6.474
10
Cardinals DST ARI
15.9
7.783
11
Broncos DST DEN
13.5
6.436
12
Texans DST HOU
10.4
4.609
13
Panthers DST CAR
21
11.188
14
Chargers DST SD
10.2
5.035
15
Dolphins DST MIA
15.8
8.187
16
Bengals DST CIN
17.9
10.112
17
Chiefs DST KC
19.9
12.148
18
Buccaneers DST TB
12.6
6.639
19
Falcons DST ATL
7.8
5.129
20
Jaguars DST JAC
9.7
5.764
21
Vikings DST MIN
10.5
5.951
22
Rams DST STL
16.3
10.680
23
Browns DST CLE
12.7
7.318
24
Titans DST TEN
13.8
8.133
25
Cowboys DST DAL
14.6
8.231
26
Jets DST NYJ
10.9
6.157
27
Redskins DST WAS
12.2
7.045
28
Bears DST CHI
12.5
7.309
29
Colts DST IND
12.8
7.780
30
Steelers DST PIT
12
8.073
31
Lions DST DET
12.1
9.314
32
Giants DST NYG
11.9
8.500

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