Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Market Fantasy #60 - The Championship Week Free Agents and Consistency Ratings

Hello and Welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below you will find the updated consistency rankings through week 14. The ranks are based on a combination of player weekly scoring average and the standard deviation of the scores. They’re not meant to be regular season ranks, but more of a predictive tool. The aim is to identify players who score the most points week to week on the most consistent basis. A full description of how the ranks are calculated can be found here. As always, the players are listed with the relevant information so you can do your own research and work with the info how you like.

We’ve played 15 weeks of real and fantasy football to this date. Congratulations to all those with something yet to play for! Week 15 definitely supplied its share of performances that most likely swung the outcome of your game single handedly. Whether your game was over before it started with the Broncos laying an egg Thursday, you were sunk by Jamaal Charles’ ridiculous day (I survived him in a league, miraculously) or you were hanging on until about 10:30 last night when Justin tucker nailed a 60 yarder, week 15 was chock full of crazy performances.

With all the scoring going on outside of Denver this week, it’s no surprise that this was the week of the QB. While we have come to expect Nick Foles to dominate, and really Alex Smith’s game shouldn’t be a huge surprise the way he’s played this year, there were a lot of big time QB games on people’s bench or the waiver wire as Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Flynn and even Matt Cassel shredded their opponents. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Eli Manning threw five picks and was sacked three times in an all-time awful performance.

There were a couple breakout RB performances as well. With Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhardt out, Matt Asiata came on and scored three touchdowns for the Vikings. He also added 51 yards on 30 (!) carries. Unfortunately, with both AP and Gerhardt expected to be back for week 16, Asiata can go be back to being ignored. Thanks for playing, you have a great story for your grandkids someday. Jordan Todman of Jacksonville, however is another story. I’ll touch on him more in the pickups.

Thanks for reading and good luck to all those still alive!  


QB:
Ryan Tannehill – By my ranks below, Tannehill has been the most consistent QB to predict this year. Last week, he led a huge upset of the Patriots with 312 yards and 3 TDs. This was his third week in the last four with over 300 yards and he is really coming into his own this year. A big part of that is he is finally utilizing Mike Wallace who, probably not coincidentally is in double digits in three of his last 4. This week, he gets to take on a weak Bills defense in what could be another big game for Tannehill.

Kirk Cousins – Cousins is going to start the rest of the year on his “show the rest of the NFL I’m worth a first rounder” tour. In the tour’s first stop, he managed 381 yards and 3 touchdowns despite two picks and a lost fumble. I don’t see him slowing down this week against a Dallas defense that can’t stop anyone and has been shredded the last two weeks by Josh McCown (good) and Matt Flynn (not good). With Washington having their own awful defense, you could probably set the over/under at 75 on this game. Should be plenty of stats to go around.

RB:
Jordan Todman – I talked about Todman here last week, and if he’s still out there, he should be grabbed at least as a defensive move. Last week, Todman rushed for 109 yards and was active in the passing game, netting 4 catches on 8 targets. With Cecil Shorts III likely out for the year, and MJD no lock to play, the Jaguars offense should again go through Todman. He should be a good play on volume alone against a Titans team that is stout against the pass, but can be beaten on the ground.

Andre Ellington – If Ellington was dropped by a frustrated owner, he needs to be picked up as he showed again last week how productive he can be even in limited duty. He left the game for a little bit with a thigh injury, but he is believed to be good to go. He has a tough matchup with Seattle and Rashard Mendenhall gets the goal line opportunities, but Ellington should be able to put up flex numbers for those owners who are desperate.

Trent Richardson – Ugh. I’m sorry I have to make you read a recommendation to pick up Richardson. After Donald Brown left the game early last week, Richardson picked up the slack with 102 combined yards and a score. If Brown is out, Richardson will get the start against an average KC defense. If you need RB help, do what you have to do. We won’t tell anyone.

WR:
Julian Edelman – I’m guessing him and Kendall Wright are both owned, but if they’re out there, go get them with Edelman as the priority. Edelman has been in double digits the last four weeks and is clearly the Patriot to own in the passing game. The matchup with the Ravens is a little daunting, but Edelman should put up WR2 numbers on volume alone and is a great flex play for those in need.

Andre Holmes – Holmes has really come on the last few weeks with Denarius Moore out, posting double digits in 2 of the last 3, with the down week being a not terrible 6.3. Even with Moore back last week, Holmes managed a touchdown and 58 yards. This week he takes on a beatable San Diego team and should continue to produce flex value as he has become a favorite target of QB Matt McGloin.

Doug Baldwin – With all the hype around basically every other Seahawks receiver, it’s a little startling to see Baldwin emerge as the top option this season, but here we are. Baldwin has been good for double digits in 4 of his last 6, with week 14’s 3.6 points as the only really unusable game in that span. The matchup with Arizona this week is going to be a tough one, but Baldwin should be owned as bench depth and a hail mary flex for those who need it.

TE:
Zach Miller – Unlike his teammate Baldwin, the Arizona matchup is a dream for TEs. This week, Zach Miller could be the next beneficiary of the sieve that is Arizona trying to cover TEs. Miller scored in the previous meeting with them in week 7, and while he’s only been in double digits once since then, Miller could be a good play this week for those of you playing the TE carousel. He’s a gamble because his low games can kill you, but it’s a relatively safe gamble this week given Arizona’s poor performance against opposing TEs. I’m a Cameron owner in one league, and I’m giving serious thought to trusting my trophy hopes to Miller.

Zach Ertz – Ertz is another gamble, but judging by recent history, he has a chance to be solidly in the TE1 space by the time week 16 is done. He clearly has chemistry with Foles, and has been in double digits his last three games. While his week 14 doughnut was a disaster, he should be in line for a good game against a Chicago team that has had trouble with the TE in a game that should be a shootout. I like Miller a little better, but Ertz should be fine himself.

Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Tannehill, Ryan QB MIA
20.6
5.972
2
Wilson, Russell QB SEA
21.9
7.532
3
Stafford, Matthew QB DET
24
8.430
4
Rivers, Philip QB SD
24.2
9.099
5
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
19.9
7.284
6
Newton, Cam QB CAR
22.4
9.280
7
Glennon, Mike QB TB
15.9
6.383
8
Flacco, Joe QB BAL
16.7
6.508
9
Luck, Andrew QB IND
22.4
9.360
10
Palmer, Carson QB ARI
17.8
7.928
11
Cutler, Jay QB CHI
19.7
8.888
12
Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
21.6
10.042
13
Brees, Drew QB NO
29.2
11.226
14
Smith, Alex QB KC
21.1
9.467
15
Manning, Peyton QB DEN
34.8
13.407
16
Henne, Chad QB JAC
12.1
5.747
17
Ponder, Christian QB MIN
13.5
6.503
18
Weeden, Brandon QB CLE
13.8
6.721
19
Griffin III, Robert QB WAS
19.5
9.344
20
McCown, Josh QB CHI
24.4
12.548
21
McGloin, Matt QB OAK
14.7
7.575
22
Manuel, EJ QB BUF
15.5
7.635
23
Romo, Tony QB DAL
22.9
11.063
24
Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
24.2
12.937
25
Foles, Nick QB PHI
25.6
16.439
26
Brady, Tom QB NE
21.5
11.007
27
Pryor, Terrelle QB OAK
14
8.303
28
Kaepernick, Colin QB SF
18.5
10.352
29
Fitzpatrick, Ryan QB TEN
20.8
11.016
30
Clemens, Kellen QB STL
11.1
7.362
31
Dalton, Andy QB CIN
21.6
11.307
32
Cassel, Matt QB MIN
16.7
10.654
33
Keenum, Case QB HOU
15.6
10.548
34
Manning, Eli QB NYG
13.8
9.863
35
Schaub, Matt QB HOU
14.7
11.032
36
Campbell, Jason QB CLE
17.6
13.535
37
Smith, Geno QB NYJ
12.2
10.723
38
Flynn, Matt QB GB
12.7
10.926


Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
12.7
4.664
2
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
11.2
4.810
3
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
10.9
5.221
4
Forte, Matt RB CHI
16.9
6.607
5
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
10.4
5.128
6
Richardson, Trent RB IND
6.7
3.981
7
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
9.2
5.088
8
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
8.8
5.070
9
Gore, Frank RB SF
12
6.122
10
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
6.6
4.461
11
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
7.1
4.636
12
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
10.9
5.997
13
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
11.9
6.489
14
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
6.6
4.460
15
Brown, Andre RB NYG
12.8
6.707
16
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
9.6
5.666
17
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
5.9
3.927
18
Hillis, Peyton RB NYG
6.4
4.393
19
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
9.5
5.808
20
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
6.5
4.584
21
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
14.4
7.666
22
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
4.6
3.817
23
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
4.9
4.018
24
Bush, Reggie RB DET
15.2
7.897
25
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
15.5
8.024
26
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
16
8.580
27
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
8.9
6.075
28
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
18.5
9.516
29
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
21.7
11.889
30
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
4
3.630
31
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
6.6
5.362
32
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
9.6
6.706
33
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
12.4
7.740
34
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
15.8
8.789
35
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
16.8
9.302
36
Bell, Joique RB DET
9.8
6.857
37
Vereen, Shane RB NE
13
8.209
38
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
4.5
4.242
39
Rice, Ray RB BAL
8.5
6.576
40
Stacy, Zac RB STL
12.4
8.382
41
Brown, Donald RB IND
6.5
5.572
42
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
6.2
5.369
43
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
9.2
7.064
44
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
7.4
6.701
45
Todman, Jordan RB JAC
4
4.995
46
Ball, Montee RB DEN
5.6
5.527
47
Tate, Ben RB HOU
8.2
6.989
48
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
8.2
7.056
49
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
10.6
9.280
50
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
4.1
5.311
51
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
9
7.827
52
Sproles, Darren RB NO
7.7
7.182
53
Greene, Shonn RB TEN
4.6
5.555
54
Helu, Roy RB WAS
5.2
5.948
55
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
5.7
6.615
56
Starks, James RB GB
6.3
7.358
57
Ingram, Mark RB NO
4.8
7.230
58
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
6.6
12.102


Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Welker, Wes WR DEN
10.4
5.096
2
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
7.6
4.138
3
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
7.7
4.271
4
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
8.6
5.195
5
Crabtree, Michael WR SF
7.1
2.662
6
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
10.3
6.201
7
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
9.8
6.149
8
Allen, Keenan WR SD
11.4
6.567
9
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
12.2
7.123
10
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
7.5
4.743
11
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
14.3
7.381
12
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
8.6
5.412
13
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
8.7
5.528
14
Smith, Steve WR CAR
6.7
2.940
15
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
10.9
7.357
16
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
6.6
4.291
17
Burleson, Nate WR DET
6.8
4.746
18
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
14.2
8.611
19
Streater, Rod WR OAK
7.5
5.457
20
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
13.2
8.259
21
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
14.4
9.188
22
Green, A.J. WR CIN
14.2
9.076
23
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
14.5
9.692
24
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
6.8
5.383
25
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
8.8
7.136
26
Woods, Robert WR BUF
5.9
4.680
27
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
14.6
11.678
28
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
6.8
5.416
29
Amendola, Danny WR NE
7.9
6.641
30
Edelman, Julian WR NE
10.2
8.058
31
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
8.1
7.172
32
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
9
7.446
33
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
18.8
12.378
34
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
19.9
12.388
35
Kerley, Jeremy WR NYJ
6
4.992
36
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
6.4
5.143
37
Tate, Golden WR SEA
7.4
6.234
38
Jones, James WR GB
7.8
6.773
39
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
11.9
9.470
40
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
5.8
4.977
41
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
6.8
5.763
42
Colston, Marques WR NO
9
7.631
43
Jones, Jacoby WR BAL
6.5
5.245
44
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
8.1
7.299
45
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
5.4
4.556
46
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
6.9
6.228
47
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
13.1
11.205
48
White, Roddy WR ATL
5
4.414
49
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
9.5
8.662
50
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
9.7
9.262
51
Decker, Eric WR DEN
12.5
12.041
52
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
6.7
6.002
53
Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
6.2
5.923
54
Washington, Nate WR TEN
6.7
6.409
55
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
6.7
6.430
56
Royal, Eddie WR SD
7.3
7.300
57
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
7.9
7.748
58
Holmes, Andre WR OAK
5.2
5.218
59
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
5.7
5.434
60
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
9.4
10.444
61
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
6.8
7.212
62
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
9.3
9.974
63
Rogers, Da'Rick WR IND
9.3
11.700
64
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
8.6
9.930
65
Austin, Tavon WR STL
7.2
9.736
66
Hunter, Justin WR TEN
5.5
7.523
67
Stills, Kenny WR NO
5.8
7.722
68
Underwood, Tiquan WR TB
5.5
7.603
69
Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
5.6
7.876


Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
7.4
3.691
2
Miller, Heath TE PIT
5
2.363
3
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
4.8
3.495
4
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
5
3.734
5
Pitta, Dennis TE BAL
6.6
4.200
6
Fasano, Anthony TE KC
4.5
3.444
7
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
6.7
4.346
8
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
6.7
4.761
9
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
4.2
3.174
10
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
3.7
2.733
11
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
4
3.038
12
Gates, Antonio TE SD
7.1
5.587
13
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
8.1
5.869
14
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
13.2
7.473
15
Housler, Rob TE ARI
4
3.019
16
Clay, Charles TE MIA
8.2
6.410
17
Witten, Jason TE DAL
8.9
6.924
18
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
11.6
7.444
19
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
4.4
3.837
20
Wright, Timothy TE TB
5.2
4.570
21
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
15.1
8.837
22
Kendricks, Lance TE STL
3.4
2.822
23
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
4.2
3.675
24
Celek, Brent TE PHI
4.4
3.804
25
Fleener, Coby TE IND
6.3
4.866
26
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
8.6
7.003
27
Davis, Vernon TE SF
12
8.575
28
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
6.6
5.669
29
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
9.5
7.537
30
Winslow, Kellen TE NYJ
4.4
3.830
31
Miller, Zach TE SEA
5
4.733
32
Lewis, Marcedes TE JAC
4.4
4.247
33
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
4.4
4.484
34
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
4.6
5.327
35
Cook, Jared TE STL
6.2
6.703
36
Green, Ladarius TE SD
3.4
4.236
37
Quarless, Andrew TE GB
2.7
4.460
38
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
4
6.047



Player
Avg
Stdev
1
Bills DST BUF
14.9
5.890
2
Packers DST GB
13.1
5.630
3
Eagles DST PHI
11.9
4.114
4
Saints DST NO
14.1
6.606
5
49ers DST SF
17.1
7.900
6
Cardinals DST ARI
17
7.955
7
Patriots DST NE
12.7
6.111
8
Broncos DST DEN
12.7
6.307
9
Ravens DST BAL
14.4
7.227
10
Browns DST CLE
13.4
7.188
11
Seahawks DST SEA
20.7
10.053
12
Chargers DST SD
10.5
4.762
13
Dolphins DST MIA
14.6
8.050
14
Raiders DST OAK
12.4
6.715
15
Texans DST HOU
9.8
4.538
16
Vikings DST MIN
10.4
5.513
17
Chiefs DST KC
21.1
12.076
18
Panthers DST CAR
19.9
11.256
19
Jaguars DST JAC
10.3
5.548
20
Jets DST NYJ
10.8
6.143
21
Rams DST STL
15.6
10.404
22
Bengals DST CIN
15.8
10.778
23
Redskins DST WAS
11.7
7.126
24
Steelers DST PIT
12.3
7.544
25
Cowboys DST DAL
13.1
8.506
26
Buccaneers DST TB
13.8
9.367
27
Bears DST CHI
11.7
7.126
28
Colts DST IND
12.9
8.948
29
Falcons DST ATL
9.6
6.422
30
Titans DST TEN
12.1
8.626
31
Giants DST NYG
11.5
8.016
32
Lions DST DET
11.8
8.785

1 comment:

  1. Man fuck fantasy football. The shit is 85% luck as compared to other sports which is more like 20% luck. Losing to straight up bums that start James freakin Jones in the flex...

    ReplyDelete