Saturday, December 14, 2013

Market Fantasy #59 - Week 14 Efficiency Ratings

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Below are my efficiency rankings through week 13. The idea is similar to my consistency rankings in how they are calculated, but looking at a different set of metrics. The consistency rankings are really more of a predictive tool than a rank, in that by showing a players average performance and standard deviation within those performances, we can get an idea of what to expect from a player in a given week.

The efficiency rankings below are based on two metrics: total number of touches and points per touch. Total number of touches is the number of times a player touches the football, either via reception or carry. Points per touch is the number of fantasy points a player scores each time they touch the ball (YTD fantasy points divided by total touches).

The idea in calculating where a player ranks is similar to how I get to my consistency ranks. In calculating the consistency ranks, more weight is given to players with higher average scores, since they are high performers, but also lowest standard deviation. A lower standard deviation gives us a smaller range of outcomes when predicting what their score will be. In calculating the below efficiency ranks, the most weight is given to the highest touches, along with the highest points per touch. The idea is to find the players who will touch the ball the most and score the most points each time they do so. A player like James Starks has a very high points per touch among running backs, but also a smaller workload, so a big game is blown out of proportion some.

One last note on the ranks: running backs will have a lower points per touch than wide receivers and tight ends due to both the higher number of touches and the nature of their touches. Whereas a receiver might average 15 yards (1.5 points) per reception, a good running back only averages 4.5 (.45 points) yards per carry (and a little more per reception).

So scroll through and let me know what you think. These ranks are a work in progress and I still haven’t decided if I like using touches or looks (targets instead of receptions plus carries) better. For now, I like touches since I am of the mind that a non-catch on a target isn’t always the receiver’s fault, whereas a catch almost always is caused by the receiver. I’ll keep thinking about it.

Thanks for reading!


Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Charles, Jamaal RB KC
295
0.801
2
Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
264
0.790
3
McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
301
0.732
4
Forte, Matt RB CHI
299
0.699
5
Lynch, Marshawn RB SEA
271
0.729
6
Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
296
0.672
7
Murray, DeMarco RB DAL
201
0.766
8
Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
178
0.799
9
Woodhead, Danny RB SD
149
0.875
10
Jackson, Fred RB BUF
198
0.729
11
Bush, Reggie RB DET
225
0.685
12
Bell, Joique RB DET
167
0.778
13
Gore, Frank RB SF
235
0.632
14
Johnson, Chris RB TEN
252
0.610
15
Ellington, Andre RB ARI
114
0.869
16
Sproles, Darren RB NO
100
0.913
17
Morris, Alfred RB WAS
224
0.632
18
Lacy, Eddie RB GB
254
0.588
19
Brown, Donald RB IND
97
0.895
20
Helu, Roy RB WAS
81
0.883
21
Reece, Marcel RB OAK
66
1.033
22
Tolbert, Mike RB CAR
102
0.819
23
Vereen, Shane RB NE
78
0.871
24
Jennings, Rashad RB OAK
154
0.697
25
Mathews, Ryan RB SD
227
0.582
26
Stacy, Zac RB STL
194
0.610
27
Bell, Le'Veon RB PIT
212
0.583
28
Thomas, Pierre RB NO
192
0.605
29
Ridley, Stevan RB NE
153
0.662
30
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
242
0.520
31
Gerhart, Toby RB MIN
49
0.961
32
Bolden, Brandon RB NE
73
0.796
33
Starks, James RB GB
72
0.797
34
Snelling, Jason RB ATL
60
0.822
35
Rainey, Bobby RB TB
120
0.671
36
Thomas, Daniel RB MIA
106
0.700
37
Rice, Ray RB BAL
233
0.431
38
Tate, Ben RB HOU
196
0.520
39
Ogbonnaya, Chris RB CLE
83
0.717
40
Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
60
0.785
41
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB CIN
196
0.507
42
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB ATL
135
0.613
43
Mendenhall, Rashard RB ARI
180
0.522
44
Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
173
0.525
45
Ball, Montee RB DEN
115
0.617
46
Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
184
0.507
47
Greene, Shonn RB TEN
54
0.757
48
Ivory, Chris RB NYJ
148
0.560
49
Cunningham, Benny RB STL
49
0.735
50
Blount, LeGarrette RB NE
103
0.614
51
Jackson, Steven RB ATL
134
0.587
52
Todman, Jordan RB JAC
51
0.731
53
Richardson, Trent RB IND
171
0.454
54
Hunter, Kendall RB SF
67
0.637
55
Miller, Lamar RB MIA
166
0.502
56
Powell, Bilal RB NYJ
167
0.492
57
Brown, Andre RB NYG
113
0.588
58
McFadden, Darren RB OAK
116
0.578
59
Bush, Michael RB CHI
55
0.636
60
McGahee, Willis RB CLE
146
0.340
61
Pierce, Bernard RB BAL
143
0.374
62
Ingram, Mark RB NO
64
0.558


Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Johnson, Calvin WR DET
75
2.731
2
Gordon, Josh WR CLE
75
2.595
3
Thomas, Demaryius WR DEN
74
2.445
4
Green, A.J. WR CIN
78
2.122
5
Marshall, Brandon WR CHI
84
1.940
6
Decker, Eric WR DEN
71
2.180
7
Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
66
2.348
8
Nelson, Jordy WR GB
67
2.188
9
Jeffery, Alshon WR CHI
90
1.846
10
Bryant, Dez WR DAL
71
2.097
11
Jackson, Vincent WR TB
65
2.143
12
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
69
1.974
13
Welker, Wes WR DEN
73
1.860
14
Brown, Antonio WR PIT
96
1.732
15
Smith, Torrey WR BAL
55
2.187
16
Cotchery, Jerricho WR PIT
42
2.633
17
Johnson, Andre WR HOU
95
1.660
18
Allen, Keenan WR SD
61
1.938
19
Jones, Marvin WR CIN
41
2.578
20
Floyd, Michael WR ARI
56
2.011
21
Cooper, Riley WR PHI
37
3.114
22
Boldin, Anquan WR SF
67
1.813
23
Royal, Eddie WR SD
38
2.371
24
Hunter, Justin WR TEN
18
3.300
25
Cruz, Victor WR NYG
71
1.680
26
Hilton, T.Y. WR IND
60
1.840
27
Baldwin, Doug WR SEA
44
2.141
28
Stills, Kenny WR NO
26
2.842
29
Randle, Rueben WR NYG
37
2.462
30
Garcon, Pierre WR WAS
91
1.314
31
Moore, Denarius WR OAK
37
2.349
32
Edelman, Julian WR NE
78
1.392
33
Streater, Rod WR OAK
52
1.854
34
Williams, Terrance WR DAL
38
2.187
35
LaFell, Brandon WR CAR
46
1.874
36
Hartline, Brian WR MIA
67
1.634
37
Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
49
1.841
38
Tate, Golden WR SEA
54
1.813
39
Wright, Kendall WR TEN
73
1.338
40
Thompkins, Kenbrell WR NE
32
2.206
41
Douglas, Harry WR ATL
68
1.479
42
Ginn, Ted WR CAR
33
2.188
43
Colston, Marques WR NO
56
1.716
44
Sanders, Emmanuel WR PIT
59
1.671
45
Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
44
1.834
46
Wallace, Mike WR MIA
60
1.603
47
Austin, Tavon WR STL
49
1.733
48
Washington, Nate WR TEN
43
1.840
49
Brown, Marlon WR BAL
37
2.081
50
Shorts, Cecil WR JAC
66
1.450
51
Dobson, Aaron WR NE
35
2.091
52
Smith, Steve WR CAR
60
1.535
53
Jones, James WR GB
41
1.812
54
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
49
1.610
55
Simpson, Jerome WR MIN
43
1.698
56
Johnson, Steve WR BUF
52
1.467
57
Jennings, Greg WR MIN
48
1.563
58
Boykin, Jarrett WR GB
36
1.822
59
Avery, Donnie WR KC
37
1.722
60
Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
40
1.525



Player
Touches
Pts/Touch
1
Graham, Jimmy TE NO
74
2.549
2
Thomas, Julius TE DEN
50
2.570
3
Cameron, Jordan TE CLE
72
1.729
4
Davis, Vernon TE SF
44
3.105
5
Witten, Jason TE DAL
55
1.913
6
Clay, Charles TE MIA
66
1.686
7
Bennett, Martellus TE CHI
53
1.675
8
Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
65
1.597
9
Cook, Jared TE STL
43
1.921
10
Olsen, Greg TE CAR
58
1.640
11
Gronkowski, Rob TE NE
39
2.133
12
Graham, Garrett TE HOU
49
1.684
13
Gates, Antonio TE SD
68
1.347
14
Fleener, Coby TE IND
49
1.663
15
Walker, Delanie TE TEN
45
1.676
16
Fauria, Joseph TE DET
11
4.455
17
Myers, Brandon TE NYG
38
1.745
18
Green, Ladarius TE SD
16
2.963
19
Celek, Brent TE PHI
25
2.352
20
Miller, Zach TE SEA
28
2.096
21
Cumberland, Jeff TE NYJ
20
2.340
22
Reed, Jordan TE WAS
46
1.515
23
Ertz, Zach TE PHI
26
2.008
24
Clark, Dallas TE BAL
31
1.687
25
Chandler, Scott TE BUF
43
1.430
26
Miller, Heath TE PIT
49
1.151
27
Gresham, Jermaine TE CIN
40
1.373
28
Wright, Timothy TE TB
38
1.537
29
Rudolph, Kyle TE MIN
30
1.643
30
Rivera, Mychal TE OAK
31
1.584
31
Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
39
1.264
32
Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
35
1.331
33
Housler, Rob TE ARI
34
1.282

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