Market Fantasy #64 - The week 15 FOW

Position		Player		Current Value		Weekly Change		YTD Change
QB		Brees, Drew NO		$              47.27		-5.2%		-4.1%
QB		Manning, Peyton DEN		$              60.43		2.2%		51.3%
QB		Rodgers, Aaron GB		$              23.89		0.0%		-48.9%
RB		Peterson, Adrian MIN		$              47.19		-3.5%		-12.8%
RB		Forte, Matt  CHI		$              40.16		-4.4%		28.0%
RB		Charles, Jamaal KC		$              62.13		0.0%		35.0%
RB		Spiller, C.J. BUF		$              24.93		2.6%		-43.9%
RB		Lynch, Marshawn SEA		$              44.33		-3.0%		7.3%
RB		Rice, Ray BAL		$              22.57		-0.9%		-40.3%
WR		Johnson, Calvin DET		$              47.12		-4.8%		6.7%
WR		Bryant, Dez DAL		$              36.44		-0.4%		1.8%
WR		Green, A.J.  CIN		$              39.01		3.5%		7.8%
WR		Marshall, Brandon CHI		$              36.03		-2.5%		8.2%
WR		Cruz, Victor NYG		$              19.45		-9.1%		-19.7%
WR		Thomas, Demaryius DEN		$              37.28		1.5%		23.8%
WR		Fitzgerald, Larry ARI		$              26.23		-6.7%		-12.9%
WR		Johnson, Andre HOU		$              29.16		-4.2%		5.4%
WR		Nelson, Jordy GB		$              22.23		-6.7%		51.2%
TE		Graham, Jimmy NO		$              32.82		2.4%		35.3%
TE		Davis, Vernon SF		$              17.13		-5.2%		60.1%
TE		Witten, Jason DAL		$              12.74		-2.7%		4.9%
DST		Seahawks SEA		$              33.03		-4.4%		20.7%
DST		49ers SF		$              21.11		-5.6%		-2.6%
DST		Bengals CIN		$              20.13		9.6%		-3.0%
		Totals		$            802.82		-1.9%		2.4%

Hello and welcome to Market Fantasy!

Week 16 saw a slump in the Fantasy Football FOW, as the index plunged 1.9% on the week leaving the year to date gain at 2.4%. As one might expect, the losses were widespread and across all sectors of the FOW. Let’s take a look at who was moving the FOW last week.

It’s hard to say that any sector really had a good week, but the WR sector stands out as having a particularly bad week. Injuries played a part in this, both with the players and their QBs. Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald played through injuries of their own and posted messy stat lines. Victor Cruz is out for the year, and will be replaced in next week’s final FOW of the football year. As for QBs, Aaron Rodgers’ continued absence continues to weigh on Jordy Nelson’s stock, Matt Schaub returned to the Houston starting lineup, leading to a bad game for Andre Johnson, and if his own injuries weren’t enough, Carson Palmer battled though injuries of his own which most likely had something to do with Larry Fitzgerald’s down week. I hate to say it, but there’s no way Fitz can be drafted as a WR1 next year. Carson Palmer wasn’t the answer and Fitzgerald is currently sitting at 15^th among WR, largely thanks to his 10 touchdowns on the year. He’s currently 18^th in targets and 16^th in receptions, but only 30^th in yards while being tied for third among WR with 10 TDs. The target numbers put him squarely in the high WR2 discussion, but those yards are scary. I’m not drafting him before the 4^th round next year, which means I probably won’t be drafting him.

At RB, there are two interesting options that are putting together late season surges of not really being useless, to put it nicely. What are you doing with Ray Rice and CJ Spiller next year? Are you buying the fact that nagging injuries and external factors (Fred Jackson for Spiller and a terrible O-line for Rice) contributed largely to each back’s struggles? Rice declared himself fully healthy after the team’s bye in week 8, but then went on to post only two double digit fantasy performances the rest of the way. Is he really done at 26? Are all those touches catching up to him already? What about Spiller? It appears his problem is actually one of usage. Comparing him to Fred Jackson, their rushing numbers are almost identical (193 carries for 836 yds and 4.3 YPA for Jackson, 182 for 822 and 4.5 YPA for Spiller), but Jackson’s 8 rushing TDs to Spillers 2 is the big difference. Looking deeper, however, and the receiving numbers show the real disparity. Jackson has 44 catches on 60 targets for 334 yards (7.6 YPC) and a TD. Spiller only has 28 catches on 35 targets for 157 yards (5.6 YPC) and no TDs. Why would the Bills ignore Spiller in the passing game when he can be such a dynamic player in space? How does Jackson have more catches than Spiller has targets, especially when their carries and rushing yards are almost identical? I’d be willing to bet the farm on Spiller next year. Jackson is old, and yes, he wasn’t in the NFL until later in life, but he was still playing professional football. Do those years not count as wear and tear? I’m thinking next year is the year Jackson breaks down, betting that his career path is similar to Thomas Jones. That should leave a big gap to fill in the receiving game for Spiller.

Thanks for reading everyone! Stay tuned for the final two weeks of consistency and efficiency ratings, followed by some end of season wrap up. Happy holidays!